Fuel is drained from the scheme – Newspaper Kommersant No. 212 (7413) dated 11/16/2022

From 2023, the Ministry of Finance wants to introduce a protective export duty on gasoline and diesel fuel, which were initially shipped to the domestic market, and for which a damper was paid. Thus, the Ministry of Finance wants to stop the scheme, which became possible this year, in which, due to the fall in fuel prices within the country, subsidized petroleum products from the domestic market began to flow for export. With a fee of 20 thousand rubles. per ton, such operations will become unprofitable, experts say. At the same time, the margin of Russian refineries, which turned out to be the main beneficiaries of such a practice, may suffer.

The Ministry of Finance wants to introduce a protective duty of 20 thousand rubles. per ton for the export of gasoline and diesel fuel, for which a damper has already been paid. “We sent a draft resolution to the departments for approval that those who do not have a certificate for processing oil, LPG … impose an export duty of 20 thousand rubles. per ton for gasoline and diesel fuel, ”quotes Interfax Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Sazanov. In essence, this means that only refineries will be able to continue duty-free exports of petroleum products from Russia.

According to a Kommersant source familiar with the agency’s plans, the duty could be introduced from January 1, 2023. The FAS told Kommersant that they support the proposal of the Ministry of Finance. The Ministry of Energy did not answer “Kommersant”.

The damper was invented as a measure to support domestic consumers of petroleum products. Under this mechanism, refineries receive monthly payments from the budget, their amount depends on the difference between prices for petroleum products within the Russian Federation and export prices. If the difference becomes negative, that is, if domestic prices are higher than export prices, the refineries pay extra to the budget. This year, oil companies will receive maximum damper payments, which by the end of the year will exceed 2 trillion rubles.

This year, due to the extraordinary situation in the domestic market of petroleum products, it suddenly became profitable for traders to export diesel fuel and especially gasoline from the Russian Federation, buying them on the domestic market. This was caused by a sharp drop in domestic prices, as the former channels for exporting oil products became less accessible due to sanctions. At the same time, oil companies sought to maximize the loading of refineries and increased the output of petroleum products, since they received significant payments for the damper. As a result, at the end of May, when demand within the Russian Federation is traditionally growing, wholesale prices for AI-95 gasoline were about 25% lower than in January, falling from 55 thousand rubles. up to 40 thousand rubles per ton. Such price cuts made “gray” gasoline exports profitable, even though in this case traders could not claim VAT refunds. In the case of diesel fuel, the fall in domestic prices turned out to be not so strong, so since August “gray” exports without VAT compensation have become unprofitable.

Since a damper is paid for all gasoline and diesel fuel supplied to the domestic market, it turned out that, under this scheme, the budget subsidizes refineries for the production of petroleum products for export. At the same time, there was no formal ban on the export of oil products for which the damper was received.

From March to August alone, according to Reuters estimates, about 1 million tons of gasoline and diesel fuel were exported under this scheme. According to Reuters estimates, from the beginning of the year to August, damper payments for supplies that were then exported amounted to about 24 billion rubles.

This year, the problem with “gray” fuel exports has escalated, recalls Sergey Kondratyev, deputy head of the economic department of the Institute of Energy and Finance. In his opinion, in recent months, up to 5-7% of exports were in the “gray” zone (up to 20 thousand tons of gasoline and up to 80-100 thousand tons of diesel fuel per month). According to expert estimates, losses from such operations for the budget could amount to 2.5 billion rubles. per month. Additional export duty of 20 thousand rubles. per ton, in his opinion, will make such schemes ineffective – payments for a damper for gasoline in October 2022 amounted to 9.5 thousand rubles. per ton, for diesel fuel – 25.8 thousand rubles. per ton.

In theory, blocking “gray” export supplies in the winter, when demand for petroleum products traditionally falls, should lead to a further decrease in wholesale prices in the domestic market and may hit refinery margins.

Dmitry Kozlov