Fuel is again being pulled to the exchange
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As Kommersant learned, as one of the measures to resolve the crisis in the fuel market, the government may once again increase the standards for mandatory sales of gasoline and diesel fuel on the stock exchange. Thus, oil companies can be forced to sell up to 15% of their gasoline and 12.5% of diesel fuel on the stock exchange. It is expected that this measure will be announced simultaneously with the partial easing of the ban on diesel fuel exports in the coming days. However, experts believe that a long-term effect can only be achieved after adjusting the damper.
The government and the FAS are discussing increasing the standard for mandatory sales of gasoline and diesel fuel on the stock exchange – up to 15% and 12.5% of production, respectively, Kommersant’s interlocutors in the industry told. The topic was discussed at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, and he supported it, and the service has already prepared a draft corresponding government resolution.
The standards were already increased in the summer by one percentage point – to 13% for gasoline and 9.5% for diesel fuel. Then this measure did not have a significant impact on wholesale prices, which in August-September began to grow rapidly due to the growing attractiveness of exports against the backdrop of rising oil prices and a weak ruble. Independent gas stations have repeatedly proposed increasing gasoline sales standards to 15%, but most oil companies were against it, citing the need to provide their own gas stations. Only Rosneft now sells more than 20% of its light oil products on the stock exchange.
According to Kommersant’s interlocutors, increasing exchange sales standards should become one of the measures to stabilize the market, which the government is discussing in the context of the gradual lifting of the ban on the export of petroleum products.
An unprecedented embargo was introduced on September 21, and against its background, stock prices for gasoline and diesel fuel fell sharply by 20–25%, which improved the situation with the economy of gas stations. However, authorities are actively putting pressure on oil companies and independent gas stations, trying to force them to reduce retail prices faster. In particular, on October 5, the FAS reported that it had sent oil companies and gas station chains—a total of 32 companies—demands to reduce fuel prices. The problem is that gas stations are still selling out wholesale quantities purchased at the peak of prices in September, and a reduction in retail price tags in this situation means direct losses for them.
Although the export embargo is still in effect, this week, as I wrote “Ъ” 4 And October 5, regulators are actively discussing its gradual abolition – at least for diesel fuel supplied through Transneft product pipelines. According to Kommersant’s sources, a decision on a partial lifting of the embargo may be announced in the coming days. However, it is assumed that the export of diesel fuel will be regulated either manually or through a quota system, and the ban on the export of gasoline will remain in force.
The damper (subsidies that refineries receive for supplying fuel to the domestic market) is of key importance for stabilizing the situation on the fuel market and straightening out the oil refining economy.
The Ministry of Finance’s halving of the damper since September was one of the reasons for the sharp increase in wholesale fuel prices, and now regulators are discussing whether this decision can be partially reversed by increasing payments to refineries. In October, refining may become unprofitable, since oil prices on the domestic market (calculated using netback from world prices) are now on average higher than the cost of the basket of petroleum products produced on the domestic market in conditions where their export is impossible.
A change in the sales standard on the exchange may affect the level of exchange prices, but this is far from the main factor in the dynamics, according to Petromarket. They note that long-term stabilization should be expected after the government makes decisions to adjust the damper.
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