“Friendship” went through stages – Kommersant
[ad_1]
Ukraine, which since April has been trying to double the tariff for pumping oil from Russia to Europe through its territory, has revised its proposals. The country has now applied for a two-stage increase in transportation costs from the current €13.6 to €21 per ton from 1 August. Kyiv has to discuss the increase in the rate directly with oil consumers, primarily Hungary. According to experts, too frequent tariff increases can lead to a stoppage of transportation along this route.
The Ukrainian pipeline operator Ukrtransnafta intends to increase the tariff for the transit of Russian oil through its section of the Druzhba pipeline in two stages. This was reported by the Argus agency, citing market participants and confirmed by Kommersant’s sources. According to them, from June 1, the pumping rate will increase by 25%, to €17 per ton, and from August 1 by another 23.5%, to €21 per ton. Transneft confirmed to Kommersant that the company had received a notification from Ukrtransnafta, but explained that the company was not in any negotiations with the Ukrainian side. The Ministry of Energy forwarded the question to Transneft. According to Argus, the delivery schedule for the second quarter provides for an increase in oil shipments via this route by 30.5%, to 321 thousand barrels per day (4.05 million tons).
Ukraine’s planned increase in the cost of transportation through its territory will be the second since the beginning of the year. Thus, the tariff has already increased by 18.3%, to €13.6 per ton. Last year, it also increased twice: from the beginning of the year to €9 per ton, and then from April 1 – by 27.8%, to €11.5 per ton. At the same time, as Kommersant’s sources in the market reported, initially Ukrtransnafta expected a sharper increase in the cost of pumping: from April 1, 2023, the company offered to double the rate to € 27.2 per ton, but could not agree on such an increase with consumers.
At the moment, as Kommersant’s interlocutors who are familiar with the situation explain, Ukraine is negotiating directly with Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic, which receive oil through the southern branch of Druzhba. But then these agreements are formalized with the Russian Ministry of Energy and Transneft, which historically makes an advance payment for transit through Ukrainian territory. In the future, it is planned that consumer countries will switch to direct payment for transporting oil to their borders – now this cost is included in the price of oil delivery, and Russian oil companies, having received payment, transfer the necessary amount for pumping Transneft.
But, as Kommersant’s source explains, the process of changing the mechanism for paying for transit will not be quick, since it is not only about transferring funds, but also changing the system for monitoring the volume and quality of oil. As a result, trade in the Russian variety with pumping through the Druzhba can move from the bases “ex-reservoir Budkovce” and “ex-reservoir Feneshlitke” to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. At the moment, Transneft is in charge of dispatching flows, but if it is excluded from the scheme, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic will have to recruit a staff of specialists who will perform control functions at the border points of the oil pipeline.
At the same time, it is obvious that Budapest is not going to refuse to purchase Russian oil through Ukraine, despite the rise in the cost of transportation. On the contrary, Hungary is planning to sign an agreement with Serbia in June on the construction of an oil pipeline, through which Russian oil from Druzhba will be supplied to Serbian consumers via Hungarian territory. The cost of the route, about 130 km long, is estimated at €100 million. It could be launched by the end of 2024.
According to Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, the constant increase in transit tariffs is for Ukraine a lever of pressure on Hungary, which has no economically viable alternatives to Russian supplies. So it is the Hungarian MOL that will have to pay for virtually all transportation, he believes, and also, perhaps, the country will pay for pumping to Serbia. He has no doubt that, despite this situation, there is a limit to the rise in price, after which transit through Ukraine will stop, which will be unprofitable for Kyiv itself. Nevertheless, the expert does not rule out stopping pumping in the future as a measure of influence on Russia.
[ad_2]
Source link