Freight tariffs of JSC Russian Railways are preparing to be indexed by 10.75% in 2024

Freight tariffs of JSC Russian Railways are being prepared to be indexed by 10.75% in 2024. This figure includes two additional percent of the target allowance for infrastructure overhauls and a new type of allowance for transport security. It will be 1% in 2024, and 2% in 2025. The investment program of JSC Russian Railways in 2024 is estimated at 1.3 trillion rubles. According to experts, indexation, although high, reflects inflationary pressure on Russian Railways, but the monopoly will have to spend part of these additional fees on wage indexation, otherwise there is a serious risk of an outflow of already scarce personnel.

The increase in freight railway tariffs in 2024 will be 10.75%, as follows from the materials for the socio-economic development forecast published by the Ministry of Economy on September 22. According to the text of the macro forecast, the base indexation will be 7.6% plus an additional 2% target allowance for major repairs (up to a final 7%, which will remain for 2025) plus a 1% allowance for transport security. At the same time, as noted in the text, the possibility of making separate tariff decisions in relation to container transportation, transportation of mineral and construction cargo and empty running of gondola cars is being considered. In 2023, the tariff increased by 8% plus an additional 1% for major repairs, plus an extension of the abolition of reduction factors for coal export transportation, not directly expressed as a percentage of growth.

“Kommersant” reported on the transport security surcharge in August (see “Kommersant” dated August 1); then interlocutors close to Russian Railways estimated the monopoly’s expenses under this item in 2022 at 45 billion rubles. According to Kommersant’s information, at a meeting with Andrei Belousov at the end of August – beginning of September, the proposal of Russian Railways to introduce such a premium was approved – it will be 1% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. At the same time, the monopolies agreed on the size of the investment program in 2024 – 1299.3 billion rubles, including 9.6 billion rubles, which, in accordance with the urgent wishes of Russian Railways, will be used for design and survey work on the third stage of modernization of the BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway. Let us remind you that Russian Railways insists on making a decision on BAM-3 as soon as possible, so that if the decision is positive, it would be possible to leave the contractors where they are working today, and not waste time and money on re-transferring them (see “Kommersant” on September 11 ). Also at the meeting, it was proposed to discuss the possibility of increasing tariffs for export transportation of goods depending on the situation in foreign markets, taking into account the ruble exchange rate. The export duty, depending on the ruble exchange rate, was introduced on October 1 and should bring the budget about 50 billion rubles. per month (see “Kommersant” on September 21), there have not yet been decisions on the mirror reflection of this principle in the railway tariff.

Indexation of 10.75% will give the monopoly about 200 billion rubles. additional funds. The head of Infoline-Analytics, Mikhail Burmistrov, notes that this level of indexation is slightly higher than one might expect, but it reflects real inflationary processes associated with rising wages, prices for fuel, materials and components purchased by Russian Railways, and increased construction costs. According to him, now the railway tariff is not a limiting factor for the growth of transportation, since the key problem is the shortage of carrying capacity, which is associated with an increase in the volume of construction and repair work, as well as problems with personnel. The tariff increase would have had a greater impact on the competitiveness of railway transport, if not for the sharp increase in the cost of road transport, which, according to Mr. Burmistrov, amounted to at least 40% in 2023, with reduced availability due to a shortage of drivers. At the same time, he warns, now an increasingly acute problem that is holding back the growth of transportation and negatively affecting efficiency indicators (speed, car turnover) is the shortage of personnel, and if Russian Railways, having received a tariff indexation of 10.75%, is unable to provide an increase salaries for line personnel by at least 20%, then we will face an even stronger flow into other industries and a deficit, which will lead to disruptions in the transportation process.

Natalya Skorlygina