Freight road transportation in Russia has risen sharply

Demand for road transport of goods in Russia grew by 61%, the cost increase was up to 38%. Carriers talk about demand, including for shipments to the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, for which there are not enough drivers and equipment. In addition, the weakening of the ruble and the increase in the recycling fee led to a rise in the price of imported long-haul tractors by 55% compared to the fall of 2022 in the face of the need to update the fleets.

In January-June, the demand for road freight transportation in Russia increased by 61%, according to the calculations of the ATI.SU exchange, and only in May-June in annual terms it increased approximately twice. Rates for the most popular Russian destinations have increased by an average of 38% per year and by 10% over the past three months. The growth in demand is associated with the acceleration of import substitution processes and the restructuring of production chains, says Svyatoslav Vilde, founder of ATI.SU.

In international directions, demand increased by only 30%, including for export – within 3%. The number of requests for transportation from European countries has dropped sharply (by 60-80%), increasing from Belarus (by 106%), Mongolia (by 139%) and China (by 85%). In terms of exports, there was a drop in all European directions, and China, Turkey, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan showed the greatest growth. Rates for international transportation have hardly grown, they say in ATI.SU.

In the field of international road transport, rates are being reduced, says Ivan Golovko, head of this direction at Noytech Supply Chain Solutions. “The cost of transportation from Turkey has decreased by 15-20% compared to the beginning of the year, possibly due to seasonal fluctuations. In China, rates fell by 30-40%, which is associated with an improvement in the situation with queues at the borders and a drop in sea freight rates,” he says.

In the European direction, prices are stable, but the volume has decreased significantly due to trade restrictions, political instability and the weak exchange rate of the ruble, Mr. Golovko explains. “The third quarter is expected to be calm. But in the fourth quarter, rates may increase by 10-15% due to increased demand on the eve of the New Year holidays,” he notes.

“January-June have always been relatively calm in terms of growth in logistics costs, but this year the first half of the year was marked by an increase in tariffs for domestic transportation by more than 15%,” confirms Alexei Misailov, Business Development Director for FM Logistic in Russia, adding, that “demand is stable”. According to the top manager, this comes against the backdrop of a sharp decline in the cost of international transportation, where tariffs have fallen by almost half.

Domestic transportation has risen in price by 15-20%, says Kirill Latinsky, commercial director of SOTA Logistic. Among the reasons, he names the shortage of drivers of category E (26% of drivers are missing) and equipment, especially universal four-axle container platforms and tilt semi-trailers of 110 cubic meters. “The shortage of personnel provokes an increase in wages, and now it is not easy to find drivers for long-distance highways even for 190-200 thousand rubles. The share of personnel costs in transportation is about 25-30%,” he adds.

“A significant amount of transport has been transferred to new territories, since the payment there is higher than in the usual geography,” Kirill Latinsky notes. In addition, according to him, due to the high volatility of the ruble and geopolitical risks, Russian business does not accumulate ruble mass on current accounts, preferring to spend it on the purchase of various goods, equipment, machinery, which, in turn, provokes a quantitative increase in transportation.

Sanjar Ashuraliev, General Director of the transport company Delko, estimates the growth in the cost of logistics services for the first half of the year at 10-30%, depending on the direction and industry. According to him, this is primarily due to the increase in the cost of vehicles, as well as changes in supply chains due to sanctions, which “complicates the search and purchase of spare parts.” “As a result, the cost of servicing equipment has also risen significantly,” adds the top manager. Mr. Ashuraliev expects that against the background of the growth of the exchange rate, the cost of equipment and maintenance, as well as the shortage of long-distance tractors and professional drivers in the third quarter, the market average will rise by at least 15-20%.

An increase in the recycling fee from August 1 will increase the cost of a truck by almost 600,000 rubles, adds Sanjar Ashuraliev. “The average age of a park is 20 years. At the same time, equipment continues to retire, and the market is experiencing an acute shortage of mainline tractors. Chinese technology has not yet covered the needs of carriers. We see that due to difficulties with the supply of spare parts, downtime is increasing,” he says.

The aging of the fleet in Russia requires an annual replacement of about 20-25 thousand cars, specifies Alexei Misailov. In the second half of the year, he expects an increase in the cost of transportation up to 30%, including against the background of the traditional growth in demand. Mr. Misailov adds that the washout of the fleet of “deficient” tractors provokes a speculative increase in tariffs – “we already see the first symptoms in a number of regions of the Volga region and the North-Western district.”

The total need for mainline tractors in 2023 is at least 39.5 thousand units, says Alexander Tsypin, General Director of BVG LLC (distributor of commercial vehicles and special equipment). Including, according to him, the immediate replacement of 6.5 thousand trucks older than 20 years is required, as well as 3-6 thousand vehicles that are decommissioned due to the unprofitability of repairs or legal problems, and about 15 thousand, underdelivered in 2022.

Depending on the type, the cost of a Chinese main tractor is 850-950 thousand yuan, Mr. Tsypin specifies, and at a rate of 8.5 rubles. for the yuan (in the fall of 2022) and a scrap fee of 850.5 thousand rubles. such a truck could be bought for an average of 7.6 million rubles. At a rate of 12.5 rubles. and the new collection rate, the cost of the car grows by 55%, to 11.8 million rubles, the top manager emphasizes. According to him, transport companies will need time to adapt and rebuild business models due to a significant increase in the cost of equipment, which was not initially included in the business plans of all participants in the chain.

Olga Nikitina