Fitch sharply cuts European gas price forecast for 2023-24

Rating agency Fitch has sharply cut its forecast for gas prices in Europe, according to the agency’s June 21 review. The average gas price expected by Fitch at the most liquid TTF hub in the EU in the Netherlands has been reduced by 1.7 times from $20 per 1,000 cubic meters. feet ($706 per 1,000 cubic meters) to $12 per 1,000 cubic meters. feet ($423.6 per 1000 cubic meters). The forecast price level for 2024 has been halved from $20 per 1,000 cubic meters. feet to $10 per 1000 cu. feet ($353 per 1000 cubic meters). The agency published the previous forecast in March 2023.

The report notes that the forecast is adjusted due to “sufficient supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the region”, as well as reduced demand for gas and high levels of reserves in underground storage, which are well above the average level in comparable periods. These factors, according to Fitch analysts, lead to a decrease in spot gas prices in Europe.