Fitch lowers 2023 European and US gas price forecast
[ad_1]
The international rating agency Fitch has lowered the short-term estimate of the cost of gas in Europe for 2022–2023 and in the United States for 2022. This is primarily due to lower industrial gas consumption in Europe, ample LNG supplies and a warm start to winter, data show. report on the agency website.
Under the baseline scenario, the forecast for the average price of natural gas in Europe for 2022 has decreased from $45 to $38 per 1,000 cubic meters. feet (up to about $1,330 per 1,000 cubic meters), in the US – from $250 to $236 per 1,000 cubic meters. m.
Fitch continues to expect lower oil prices due to the slowdown in economic growth, which will lead to a reduction in demand in the short term. In the long term, the decline in oil prices will be caused by a gradual weakening of “geopolitical pressure” in the world, the agency believes.
Fitch analysts expect no Russian gas to enter the EU in 2023, which will be more dependent on LNG supplies and face competition from Asian buyers. The agency noted that, despite a slight decrease in the forecast, gas prices in Europe will remain high compared to historical averages and will be highly volatile.
The warm winter in the EU and the fullness of gas storage facilities in European countries by 90-95% also affected the decrease in the forecast price for gas in the US gas hub Henry Hub, according to Fitch. Another indicator of the decline in the price of natural gas in the US is the steady growth in supply, especially in the Haynesville and Perm basins, where operators are adding rigs as they seek to scale up and capitalize on strong LNG demand, the report said.
According to ICIS, gas consumption in the EU in November It was 24% below the average for the past five years. According to ICIS analysts, although the increase in gas prices has a negative impact on end-users of energy, it allows Europe to attract additional LNG supplies and reduce its dependence on Russian gas.
[ad_2]
Source link
