Exports of metallurgical coal from Russia will exceed the result of 2022
[ad_1]
In January-November, Russia increased sea exports of metallurgical types of coal to 40 million tons, which already exceeds the result of the entire 2022 year. Although China purchased more than half of this volume, the fastest-growing major market remains India, where coal consumption in the metallurgical industry is expected to continue to increase in the coming years. Elgaugol makes the largest contribution to export growth. More expensive metallurgical coals are displacing thermal coal, exports of which from Russia are declining, from the scarce export infrastructure.
Russia increased sea exports of metallurgical coal in the first 11 months of 2023 by 21%, to 40 million tons. This follows from Kpler data (Kommersant is available). For all of 2022, seaborne exports of metallurgical coal, which includes both coking coal and anthracite, amounted to 36 million tons. Sea exports of thermal coal in January-November, on the contrary, decreased by 8.5%, to 96.4 million tons.
The Ministry of Energy expects that by the end of this year, production and exports will remain at last year’s levels – 440 million and 220 million tons, respectively – and the same level will remain in 2024.
In August 2022, an embargo on the purchase of Russian coal in Europe came into force. From that moment on, Russian companies began to redirect supplies from Europe to other markets. In January-October, India increased purchases of Russian coking coal by 2.2 times, to 5.2 million tons, according to Indian customs materials. But China remains the main export market, where supplies in the ten months of 2023 increased by 22%, to 23.6 million tons. According to the International Energy Agency, metallurgical coal consumption in the Asia-Pacific region will increase by 2.6% in 2023, to 923 million tons, and by 2026 will reach 939 million tons. The most promising market is India, where consumption in 2023 will increase by 12%, to 81 million tons, and in 2026 this country will consume 104 million tons. China will increase consumption by 2.7% in 2023, to 738 million tons, but will reduce it by 1% by 2026.
The main source of growth in coking coal exports was the Elginskoye deposit, production at which, according to forecasts by the Yakut authorities, will increase to 23 million tons this year from 20.1 million tons in 2022.
In November, Elgaugol received permission to put into operation the second stage of the deposit with a capacity of 45 million tons per year. So far, the company’s coal export capabilities are limited by the receiving capacity of the Eastern landfill, but in 2025, Elgaugol plans to complete its own railway from the deposit to the Sea of Okhotsk and a port in the village of Chumikan, Khabarovsk Territory. The capacity of this infrastructure was supposed to be 30 million tons per year, but the company has already announced its intention to expand it to 50 million tons.
Coking coal production in Kuzbass is growing at a slower pace; there, production of coking grades increased in January-November by 2.4%, to 62.1 million tons. At the same time, Mechel (operating in Yakutia and Kuzbass) reduced production in January-September by 16%, to 8.7 million tons, although in the third quarter the company’s production began to recover. Raspadskaya intends to maintain production levels at last year’s level of 22 million tons.
Prices for coking coal remain at a fairly high level – more than $320 per ton on a FOB basis for premium Australian grades of coking coal, comments Boris Krasnozhenov from Alfa Bank. At the same time, in the second quarter prices were a third lower – $220–230 per ton. “The positive dynamics of coking coal prices is associated with increased steel production in India, replenishment of inventories by Chinese consumers ahead of the Lunar New Year and limited supply from Australia due to climatic conditions,” he notes.
[ad_2]
Source link
