Exporters imported dollars to the stock exchange – Kommersant

The exchange rate of the dollar, after a month and a half break, fell below the level of 76 rubles/$. This was facilitated by a decrease in demand for foreign currency from outgoing companies and importers, as well as an increase in supply from exporters. In the coming days, such sales may return the dollar to the level of 74-75 rubles / $, analysts say.

The dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange on May 10 for the first time since March 23 fell below 76 rubles/$. During the auction, it reached 75.83 rubles / $, which is 2.36 rubles. lower than the closing value of the previous trading day. Even taking into account the fact that at the close the rate won back some of the lost positions and ended the auction at the level of 76.06 rubles/$, the fall turned out to be the strongest this year. The euro exchange rate fell by 2.7 rubles during the day, to the mark of 83.55 rubles/€, the lowest level since the end of March. The yuan lost 29 kopecks in price. and for the first time since mid-March, it closed below the level of 11 rubles / CNY.

The fall in the rates of leading currencies took place with the restored activity of investors. The volume of trading in dollars with delivery “tomorrow” amounted to almost 127 billion rubles, which is comparable to the average trading volume in the previous week. At the same time, the volume of yuan trading exceeded 171 billion rubles, updating the historical maximum set last Friday. The activity of market participants also increased in trading in the European currency, the trading volumes with which amounted to almost 44 billion rubles.

High trading volumes may be associated with the sale of foreign exchange earnings by individual companies in preparation for the payment of dividends (see. “Kommersant” from May 5).

In addition to this, Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, notes an increase in foreign exchange inflows from energy exports to China and India. According to Bloomberg, by May 5, the four-week average seaborne shipping of Russian oil reached its highest level since the agency began tracking it in detail in early 2022. “Russian exports have begun to recover, and a significant inflow of foreign currency can be expected in this direction,” said Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst at Otkritie Investments.

Usually, exporters increased the sale of foreign currency at the end of the month for the tax period, now sales began earlier due to increased sanctions risks. At the beginning of May, discussions began again in Europe on new restrictions designed to close the ways to bypass previous restrictions. “For domestic exporters, this is a rather strong signal for the repatriation of proceeds in order to protect them from unforeseen situations,” Andrey Kochetkov notes.

The effect of the high supply of foreign currency was reinforced by the decline in demand for it.

Firstly, analysts are talking about a decrease in interest in it from foreign companies, which in April actively converted funds received from the sale of Russian businesses. In May, explains Andrey Kochetkov, the number of applicants became noticeably smaller, and for this reason, excess demand for the currency is not created. In addition, the demand for foreign currency on the part of importers also decreased. “Due to the short week factor and reports of worsening conditions for parallel imports in some countries, the demand for foreign currency in the Russian Federation is probably lower now,” said Viktor Grigoriev, an analyst at the Directorate for Operations in the Financial Markets of Bank St. Petersburg.

According to Mikhail Vasiliev, the fall in demand for foreign currency could have been facilitated by the decision of the Austrian Raiffeisenbank to close correspondent accounts for all Russian banks, with the exception of the subsidiary Raiffeisenbank.

“The risks of holding the currency of unfriendly countries remain high, which further limits the demand for it,” Viktor Grigoriev specifies.

In such circumstances, the dollar exchange rate in the coming weeks may return to the range of 74-75 rubles / $, Mikhail Vasilyev believes. However, already in the summer months, the surveyed market participants are waiting for the next round of ruble depreciation. PSB Chief Analyst Denis Popov does not rule out that in the coming months the exchange rate will rise above the level of 80 rubles/$. “Fundamentally, this will be facilitated by a decrease in the foreign trade surplus. In particular, the Central Bank worsened its surplus forecast from $66 billion in February to $47 billion in April,” the expert notes.

In addition, Mr. Vasilyev believes, the exchange rate will be pressured by the recovery of imports with a reduction in exports, the risks of a possible geopolitical aggravation and increased sanctions pressure, as well as the risks of a further expansion of the budget deficit due to a reduction in oil and gas revenues.

Vitaly Gaidaev