Experts predict a return of tourist activity to pre-pandemic levels

In 2023, the tourism industry in the world can reach pre-pandemic indicators, this will happen thanks to the possibility of Chinese travelers leaving, Alexei Volkov, president of the National Union of the Hospitality Industry, told Vedomosti.

“The main tourist centers remain attractive, and Russian tourists in Europe are being replaced by tourists from other countries. I think that it will be possible to reach the pre-pandemic level in 2023, and in 2024 and 2025, given that the Chinese tourist is likely to travel in greater numbers than planned, we can see even higher numbers around the world,” said He.

According to Volkov, if there are no global political crises related to the involvement of China and Europe in 2023, then the three main tourism markets – Arab, Asian and European – will be in demand both in inbound and outbound formats.

Feb. 6 PRC in experimental mode resumed tourist trips for organized groups of travelers. The list approved by the authorities includes 20 countries, including Russia. In 2020, the country’s authorities, as part of the fight against the spread of coronavirus, banned tourist groups from traveling abroad.

The economic situation in the world will lead to the fact that people will not be able to “in such numbers [как в 2019 г.] travel,” said Natalya Kostenko, deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Tourism and Tourism Infrastructure Development. “In addition, the unstable international situation in 2023 will only worsen, for example, if we take the situation with Iran, with Taiwan. And we are not going anywhere with the energy crisis, which hit, first of all, small and medium-sized businesses in Europe. We all read the news that due to high utility bills, many hotels and restaurants could not open, ”she told Vedomosti.

After a stronger-than-expected recovery in the global tourism industry in 2022, international tourist numbers could return to pre-pandemic levels in Europe and the Middle East in 2023, according to statement World Tourism Organization (WTO).

This forecast suggests that international tourist numbers could reach 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels, depending on the extent of the economic downturn, the continued recovery of travel in the Asia-Pacific region, the development of the conflict in Ukraine, and other factors.

At the same time, the WTO notes that tourists, in response to the difficult economic situation, will seek to seek the best value for money and travel closer to their place of residence. According to the organization, more than 900 million tourists traveled the world in 2022. This is twice as many as in 2021 and is 63% of the pre-pandemic level.

In its 2021 report, the organization noted partial recovery of the global tourism market, highlighting that global tourist flow is still 72% lower than in pre-pandemic 2019. The authors then called 2020 “the worst year for global tourism.”

In 2022, the tourist flow from Russia abroad made up 9.5 million trips, which is more than 20% higher than last year, said the executive director of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR) Maya Lomidze. According to her, Turkey (5.3 million trips), Abkhazia (1.1 million), the United Arab Emirates (850,000 – 900,000) and Thailand (410,000) were the most popular among Russian tourists this year.