Experts do not expect a radical jump in airfare in 2023

A radical jump in prices for air tickets in 2023 will not occur, provided that the trends of 2022 continue in the industry, in particular, the extension of the program for subsidizing airlines by the state, as well as further “debermudization” of the fleet, Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the AviaPort industry agency, told Vedomosti .

A slight increase in air travel prices due to inflation will definitely happen – this is one of the important factors influencing price formation. Airlines cannot afford not to factor in the growth of costs in the cost of services, the expert noted. This is how he commented on the forecast of Aeroflot CEO Sergei Aleksandrovsky, who warnedthat airfare prices in 2023 could rise at least as much as inflation, although the airline would like to index them by 20-30%.

“In 2022, there were periods when prices set absolute records in recent years, and when they fell to levels below 2019. If you draw a middle line, it turns out that there was no radical increase in prices, it was at the level of inflation or slightly lower,” Panteleev said. This was facilitated by the factors that Aleksandrovsky also named: subsidizing airlines by 100 billion rubles, the strengthening of the ruble, etc. But there are other important factors on which the price level will depend, the expert is sure. The first of them is the continued state subsidization of airlines. “For the autumn-winter period, 25 billion rubles have been allocated for these purposes, we hope that subsidies will continue further, albeit in a smaller amount,” he said.

The second factor that will affect prices is the balance of supply and demand. Much will depend on how the companies succeed in further “debermudization” (withdrawal of Russian foreign-made aircraft from the Bermuda registry.) of the air fleet, Panteleev believes. “On international routes, there are now not enough aircraft that are free from sanctions risks and do not have problems with double registration. But if in the summer a strong ruble helped to keep prices on international routes at an acceptable level, then the growth of the dollar and the euro at the end of 2022 may provoke an increase in prices, and an increase in the number of “debermuidized” aircraft, on the contrary, will slow down price growth,” he noted .

On domestic lines, on the contrary, high competition remains, which does not contribute to price increases. But if southern destinations open – for example, Simferopol, Anapa and others, this will allow airlines to increase tariffs. In the meantime, there are plenty of aircraft on domestic routes, but there are not enough attractive destinations, the expert says.

According to Alexandrovsky,Aeroflot» could pass on additional costs to passengers in 2023, but will not do this due to the limited purchasing power of the population. According to the results of the third quarter, according to Rosstat, the real disposable income of the population decreased by 3.4% compared to the same period last year. The current inflation forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2023 is 5.5%.

The cost of air tickets of Russian airlines in 2022 remained at the level of 2020-2021, declared Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation Vitaly Savelyev at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the government on December 30. “As a result of the implementation of support measures this year, the average level of tariffs according to the FAS as of November 10, we specifically requested, remained at the level of the last two years and decreased by 6.5% compared to the level of 2019,” he said.