European blast furnaces smoke again – Newspaper Kommersant No. 42 (7487) of 03/14/2023

A gradual increase in steel prices and falling energy costs have given European steel companies the opportunity to restore production at blast furnaces, which stopped in 2022. Since the beginning of the year, according to Platts, nine large European enterprises have announced a restart or increase in production. Steel prices are supported by demand in China and Turkey, analysts say. Experts do not rule out that prices for hot-rolled coil may reach $1,000 per ton by summer.

European metallurgists resume production at idle blast furnaces and increase production volumes amid rising steel prices, writes Platts. So, ArcelorMittal in Germany, which did not stop blast furnaces, but worked at reduced volumes, restored the level of production. In France, the metallurgical giant is preparing to restart a blast furnace with a capacity of 2 million tons in April. In Finland, SSAB has restarted a blast furnace after maintenance. Blast furnaces are being restarted in Slovakia, Romania, Poland, Hungary: since the beginning of the year, nine large enterprises have announced a restart or an increase in production load.

In 2022, steel prices were subject to strong fluctuations. In March 2022, hot-rolled coil became more expensive after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine. According to Platts, the market expected a shortage of steel, which did not happen in the end. Supply remained at a normal level, while demand suffered. As a result, domestic prices began to decline until December.

European producers were forced to reduce production volumes by stopping blast furnaces: an additional factor was the many times higher prices for electricity, gas and coal. According to the World Steel Association, steel production in the EU in 2022 fell by 10.5%, to 136.7 million tons. However, by December, European distributors had depleted stocks accumulated in the first half of 2022, which, combined with reduced production, rising import prices and high energy costs, led to higher steel prices. At the same time, gas prices in Europe fell more than three times compared to the fall of 2022.

Steelmakers, according to Platts, are talking about good order books, and demand remains stable, which allows for further price increases. Now the prices per coil are at the level of €750-760 per ton on the basis of EXW Italy, while in March last year they were twice as high at the peak.

Demand growth prospects in China are pushing up steel prices. According to BCS analysts, due to the transition to a less stringent anti-COVID policy in China, apparent steel consumption may increase by 4–5%. This will support steel prices in Asian countries, which will help restore the attractiveness of export supplies for Russian players, they say. In addition, the start of the construction season in Russia at the junction of the first and second quarters has historically served as a driver for the growth in consumption of both long products and sheets. “Export prices for Russian steel have already managed to respond to the gradual recovery of the Chinese economy and rose after the Chinese ones by 22% in three months. It should be noted that domestic steel prices follow export prices with a two-month lag and have already managed to add 3.6% in February. It is expected that in March they will grow by 2.5-5% and are likely to continue to increase in April during the new construction season,” the BCS report says.

The increase in steel prices in Europe is due, among other things, to the impact of rising demand for rolled products in Turkey, where production is still not fully recovered from the consequences of earthquakes, says Sergei Grishunin from the NRA. “There is an increase in demand for imported rolled products in Turkey itself, and the export of Turkish rolled products to the EU is declining. The risks of shortages in Europe are growing. At the same time, the current situation provides an opportunity for European metallurgists to make money: the prices for rolled products have gone up, and raw materials continue to become cheaper along with gas, ”says the expert. In his opinion, if the US Federal Reserve stops its policy of raising rates and provides the economy with additional liquidity, by the beginning of summer the price of a coil in Europe may reach $1,000 per ton.

Evgeny Zainullin