Electricity consumption in the Russian Federation grew mainly due to the Trans-Ural regions

According to Kommersant, electricity consumption in Russia in the first half of 2023 increased by 0.7%, amounting to approximately 560 billion kWh. Growth was mainly provided by Siberia and the Far East due to the construction of the Eastern test site, the growth of exports to China, the loading of military-industrial enterprises and the increase in domestic consumption. But in most regions, demand is declining due to a slowdown in business activity, experts say, predicting, at best, a very small increase in demand by the end of the year.

Demand for electricity in the Unified Energy System of Russia (UES, does not include technologically isolated energy systems) for the six months of 2023, according to Kommersant, reached 560 billion kWh, an increase of approximately 0.7% year-on-year. The positive dynamics was mainly due to the growth in demand in Siberia and the Far East, where the figure could increase by more than 3%. The total demand of these energy systems, according to Kommersant’s estimates, exceeded 140 billion kWh. Since the beginning of this year, electricity consumption has also increased in the power systems of the Urals, the South and the Middle Volga, but there the growth rate was less than 1%.

The decline in demand in the first half of the year occurred in two energy systems – the Center and the North-West. The largest decline in demand, according to Kommersant’s estimates, occurred in the North-West, amounting to about 1.5% year-on-year. In the North-West, electricity production also fell as expected: generation decreased by about 6% yoy due to the suspension of exports to the EU from the Kaliningrad and Pskov regions. In the first half of 2022, Russia increased energy supplies to Finland and the Baltic states amid high prices on the European energy market, but exports stopped in May due to sanctions.

On the wholesale energy market, which does not include the Far East, the dynamics of demand changed from month to month: a noticeable increase occurred in February; in March and May in most energy systems there was a noticeable decrease in demand, and in April the indicator remained practically unchanged. In June, demand returned to growth at a rate above 1.5%.

According to Evgeny Rudakov from IPEM, the increase in electricity consumption for the six months of 2023 is 0.5-0.6%. Consumption is increasing due to construction, rail transport, and certain segments of the manufacturing industry, he notes.

Denis Krasnovsky from ACRA believes that the growth in consumption in Siberia and the Far East is primarily due to the implementation of the project to expand the Eastern Polygon, the increase in raw materials and energy exports to China, the current workload of military-industrial complex enterprises, the growth of cryptocurrency mining and the increase in consumption among the population . However, in most regions there is a decline in consumption, mainly due to a decrease in business activity against the backdrop of sanctions, Mr. Krasnovsky says.

Aleksey Zhikharev, director of the consulting company Ensolve, believes that due to the growth in consumption in Siberia and the Far East, against the background of the reorientation of the national economy to the east, local energy shortages may form, which may become a reason for announcing tenders for the construction of new generation in the next two years.

Electricity consumption for the whole of 2022 increased by 1.5% and amounted to 1.106 trillion kWh, while generation increased by 0.6%, to 1.121 trillion kWh, follows from the latest open data from the “System Operator” (SO, power system dispatcher ). According to forecasts published in March in the Scheme and Program for the Development of Russia’s Energy Systems, regulators expect consumption to grow by 1.5% in 2023, to 1.124 trillion kWh.

Experts interviewed by Kommersant do not expect a significant increase in energy demand at the end of the year. Denis Krasnovsky believes that the dynamics of consumption this year will be in the range from minus 0.5% to plus 0.5% compared to last year (excluding new territories). Alexey Zhikharev believes that for the whole year the increase in the indicator will be limited to the range of 0.7-0.8%. “To a large extent, the current growth in consumption is of a recovery nature,” says Evgeny Rudakov. “Probably, by the end of the year there will be near-zero dynamics.” According to the Community of Energy Consumers forecasts, consumption in both price zones of the wholesale energy market will increase by 0.5% yoy, mainly in Siberia. In the Far East, consumption growth rates will be higher than in the rest of the country.

Polina Smertina