Durum wheat exports from Russia may be limited for six months

The Ministry of Agriculture continues to look for ways to curb food inflation. Now the regulator has proposed limiting the export of durum wheat used for the production of pasta for six months from December 2023. The crop occupies a small share in total grain exports, but this season the export of durum wheat has accelerated, and pasta producers note problems with the quality of the crop.

Russia may introduce a ban on the export of durum wheat from December 1 this year to May 31, 2024. Corresponding draft resolution Government of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Agriculture published on November 1 on the portal of regulatory acts. As stated in the draft document, the measure is necessary to ensure food security in the Russian Federation. The ban should not affect supplies within the framework of international humanitarian assistance, intergovernmental agreements, transit, as well as exports to Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Belarus.

Sovecon director Andrei Sizov says that durum wheat exports from Russia usually do not exceed 100 thousand tons per season, but in recent months exports have accelerated sharply. According to him, since the beginning of the season, in September-October alone, 250 thousand tons have been exported, mainly to Italy, followed by Turkey and Tunisia. In total, from July to October, Russia exported 24.7 million tons of grain, including 19 million tons of wheat of all varieties, the Union of Grain Exporters reported.

Chairman of the Board of the Union of Grain Exporters Eduard Zernin says that the decision to ban is quite logical, based on the doctrine of food security and self-sufficiency in basic food products. Durum wheat is used in the production of pasta, and it is not surprising that the bulk of exports went to the traditional “EU pasta countries,” he notes.

According to Mr. Zernin, none of the major grain exporters will suffer from the ban. The production and export of durum wheat is not comparable with the volumes of traditional milling wheat of soft varieties, the expert adds.

General Director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies Dmitry Rylko says that the decision was expected. According to him, problems with the quality of durum wheat in the world contributed to a noticeable increase in world prices and stimulated a surge in crop exports from Russia and Kazakhstan this season. This, in turn, led to an increase in prices for Russian processors – from 15 thousand to 28 thousand rubles. per ton since the beginning of the season, the expert notes.

The general director of the pasta manufacturer SI Group (brands Shebekinskiye, Maltagliati) Andrey Gurov says that this year most of the Russian durum wheat harvest was exposed to rain, which led to a decrease in the quality of the grain. Probably, he believes, this is what caused concern for the Ministry of Agriculture. According to Mr. Gurov, as a result, average prices for durum wheat in Russia have increased by about 40% since July 2023.

Andrey Sizov adds that the production of durum wheat in Russia is concentrated in the Orenburg region, where worsening weather conditions could have affected the harvest this year. Arkady Gurevich, board member of the Russian Union of Flour and Cereal Enterprises, adds that the durum wheat harvest in Russia is already limited given the needs of pasta producers.

The gross harvest of such wheat, according to a Kommersant source, in 2022 was at the level of 1.3 million tons. Rosstat estimated the entire wheat harvest at the end of 2022 at 104.2 million tons.

As Andrei Sizov notes, the ban on the export of durum wheat should apparently be considered as part of the Ministry of Agriculture’s plan to curb food inflation along with restrictions on the export of poultry meat (see “Kommersant” dated October 26). On November 1, the Ministry of Agriculture clarified that they also plan to introduce a duty-free quota of up to 160 thousand tons for imports of certain types of poultry meat into Russia in 2024 to stabilize the price situation.

Anatoly Kostyrev