Due to difficulties with air travel, the growth of outbound tourist flows in 2024 may not exceed 15%

The gradual adaptation of Russian demand ensured an increase in foreign summer holiday bookings by one and a half to three times. Turkey, the UAE, Egypt and Thailand remain the sales leaders, although positive dynamics are also visible in some European destinations. But based on the results of 2024, the growth in the outbound flow will most likely be modest – by 10–15%. The overall dynamics will be hampered by the lack of prospects for further expansion of air traffic.

The number of foreign accommodation bookings for the summer increased by 77% over the year, as calculated by Ostrovok.ru. Yandex Travel estimates an increase in demand for spring-summer flights to non-CIS countries by 50% year-on-year, and for neighboring countries by 22%. OneTwoTrip adds that foreign destinations account for 48% of air tickets purchased for the spring and summer, which is double the figure for the same period last year. Sletat.ru talks about a threefold increase in sales of summer tours through early booking promotions, Travelata.ru records a twofold increase.

Vice-President of the Russian Union of Travel Industry Dmitry Gorin believes that good sales are facilitated by the strengthening of the ruble, adaptation of demand and increased competition among destinations. A year earlier, 32 countries were available on direct flights from Russia, now there are 41, and the supply of connecting flights is growing, he notes. The expert draws attention to the fact that the international tourist travel market is showing positive dynamics throughout the world; in Russia, the situation is developing in line with this trend, adjusted for logistics restrictions. Mr. Gorin calls the increase in sales depth an important factor. Yandex Travels notes that the planning horizon for long-distance foreign destinations increased by 9% year-on-year, to 153 days.

The leader in sales in the tours and tickets segments is Türkiye. According to Travelata.ru, the destination accounts for 31% of summer tour package sales versus 23% a year earlier. Anex Tour notes that package offers to the country are now 20–30% cheaper than a year ago. Intourist representative Daria Domostroeva explains that last year Turkey was “somewhat overrated,” which scared off tourists. At the same time, according to Travelata.ru, the average bill when booking a tour to Turkey year-on-year increased by 19%, to 207 thousand rubles. Flights to the country and back, according to Yandex Travel, increased in price by 10%, to 38.2 thousand rubles.

Fun & Sun notes that early booking sales in Turkey grew by 42% year-on-year, while bookings in the UAE are still at last year’s levels. Now the average cost of a purchased tour in the UAE is 230.9 thousand rubles, which is 25.3% more year-on-year, Travelata.ru calculated. According to the service, the average cost of tours to Egypt is 195.8 thousand rubles, an increase of 24.5% year on year

The popularity of summer tours to Thailand, according to Fun & Sun, has quadrupled, but so far the country only accounts for 9% of total bookings. The growing popularity is partly dictated by an increase in supply, for example, Anex Tour explained that from April the flight program will be carried out from eight cities. The average cost of a flight to Phuket, according to OneTwoTrip, decreased by 40% over the year, to 35 thousand rubles. one way. Analysts also include Indonesia among the popular destinations. The average cost of a flight to Bali, according to their calculations, decreased by 15% over the year, to 39 thousand rubles. one way.

Yandex Travel and Ostrovok.ru also note relatively high demand in European destinations. In terms of the number of hotel bookings, Italy is the most in demand, where the average cost of a flight, according to the service, decreased by 7% over the year, to 72.5 thousand rubles. when purchasing return tickets. Tour operators, according to Daria Domostroeva, in the absence of full-fledged programs have not yet formed their offers for European destinations for the summer season; it will be possible to talk about sales dynamics later.

In the future, according to Dmitry Gorin, tour sales volumes will depend on the future exchange rate of the ruble. But for now, the expert does not expect that the total number of outbound trips this year will increase by more than 10–15% year on year. Official data for 2023 is not yet available. But according to Mr. Gorin, we are tentatively talking about 10 million tourists. He points out that almost all foreign destinations to which direct flights could be launched have already been opened. He is sure that there are no prospects for opening new flights yet – this will restrain the overall dynamics.

Alexandra Mertsalova