Drone manufacturers fear the high cost of localization

New requirements for the production of drones to be recognized as Russian will not contribute to the localization of equipment, market participants and experts believe. Some manufacturers call the norms premature, believing that they will lead to higher prices. Experts also note that fuzzy criteria can lead to a repetition of the mistakes made in the automotive industry. In their opinion, there is a risk that for the sake of access to subsidies and government orders, market participants will imitate localization, limiting themselves to simple operations.

Participants and market experts interviewed by Kommersant doubt that the criteria developed by the Ministry of Industry and Trade for recognizing drones as manufactured in the Russian Federation will lead to a real increase in localization. Amendments to government decree No. 719 were published on June 9, the discussion will last until June 23.

The document introduces a scoring system for assessing the localization of unmanned aerial systems (UAS). From the date the amendments come into force, manufacturers must score at least 400-800 points, depending on the type and weight of the drone, with a gradual increase in the minimum allowable threshold from January 1, 2026 to 1.3 thousand points for multi-rotor weighing up to 1 kg, at least 1 .7 thousand points for aircraft-type UAS weighing up to 30 kg and 2 thousand for heavy vehicles weighing up to 500 kg. The highest number of points (300 each) is awarded for the production or use of domestic engines, onboard flight control systems and software. The remaining elements – chassis, frames and others – are rated lower.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade explained that after the localization requirements are approved, a register of BAS manufacturers will be formed, participation in which implies a number of benefits, subsidies and access to government orders. The industry fears that only the largest players will be admitted to the roster (see “Kommersant” dated June 7).

Part of the market players interviewed by Kommersant notes that the tightening of minimum localization requirements can indeed contribute to import substitution. But so far, the criteria are described without proper specifics, which, according to some interlocutors of Kommersant, will allow scoring points “due to domestic coloring and assembly of foreign components.” Others argue that tightening the requirements “will kill the market at the very start.”

Now one hundred percent “Russianness” cannot be achieved, says Vitaly Munirov, general director of Kursir, a member of the Aeronet profile NTI: “But in general, this will give impetus to the development of Russian components.”

All electronics “are unlikely to be covered,” but in general, this is achievable, in his opinion, “when it comes to the fuselage and materials.” In microelectronics, he believes, it is possible to replace only “a certain percentage” of heavy equipment. At the same time, he admits that at the first stages, manufacturers will achieve a score by using Russian “auxiliary parts” in foreign ones: “You can always take Russian paint or a couple of Russian microcircuits.”

It “seems unrealistic” to assemble a completely Russian drone in the perspective of seven to ten years, especially when it comes to equipment weighing up to 30 kg, due to the impossibility of producing the necessary range of electronic component base in the Russian Federation, says Geoscan CEO Alexei Yuretsky.

“This is one of our key dependencies, and so far the technology gap is only growing,” he notes. For large drones, the odds are up, he adds.

Kommersant’s interlocutors among manufacturers of light drones consider localization requirements for this type of equipment to be premature. Uniform criteria for drones up to 30 kg and heavy equipment are “unprofessional”. “There are both FPV drones (First Person View) and aircraft-type drones with a flight mission, and these devices fly according to different principles, different control devices are used, and their degree of complexity in the implementation of the RF is fundamentally different,” explains one of them. At this stage, “it is possible to stimulate output in the Russian Federation only by Russian demand, and not by regulation.” The key risks are that not all manufacturers will be able to afford to switch to the required volume of domestic components, adds another Kommersant source in the industry. “It will be difficult either because of their high cost or because of the low production rates,” he points out.

There are experts who, on the contrary, are not satisfied with the insufficient ambition of the Ministry of Industry and Trade: the requirements, for example, do not motivate the creation of a Russian aircraft engine. “The Ministry of Industry and Trade is obviously unable to organize the production of a certified piston aircraft engine for UAVs weighing more than 30 kg before 2026, and in terms of electric drive, the Ministry of Industry and Trade lacks technologies for the production of modern lithium batteries,” says Sergey Detenyshev, head of the Association of Small Aviation Enterprises. He explains that “a drone, in principle, should not be recognized as Russian if it is equipped with a foreign aircraft engine, the import of which is easily blocked.” Interest in the production of such engines is not “caused by regulatory requirements,” another interlocutor of Kommersant objects. While there is no serial production, not a single developer in the Russian Federation will be able to provide competitive prices for power plants, he continues. But if UAS manufacturers are “tied to points”, they will be forced to “negotiate with Chinese suppliers to provide working and technical documentation and pass off engines as their own.”

Now the project does not suit almost anyone, a Kommersant source in the leadership of one of the largest manufacturers agrees, but this document can be considered a “compromise”.

To avoid the same mistakes as in the automotive industry, localization requirements cannot be increased until “real market demand, government orders and state support appear on equal terms.”

Aigul Abdullina