Dollar rate. Forecast for December 22-23 – Finance – Kommersant

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The devaluation momentum is fading

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar by the end of this week is 68.2–71.2. The ruble continues to behave clearly weak, despite the rise in oil prices, the general market positive and the factor of the tax period. The Russian currency is under pressure from a fundamental shift in the ratio of export earnings, which began to shrink due to the general fall in oil prices and the effect of sanctions restrictions, as well as import flows, which traditionally grow before the new year. At the same time, it seems that the devaluation momentum is fading, having reached a strong resistance zone of 70-72, and, perhaps, near these levels, the dollar-ruble pair will be looking for a new balance in the near future.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

The gradual recovery of imports and sanctions pressure play against the Russian currency

A number of obvious factors contributed to the weakening of the ruble in the current period. In particular, the decline in export earnings against the backdrop of the introduction of the oil price ceiling, including the correction of oil prices today. And also against the Russian currency is the gradual recovery of imports and sanctions pressure from a number of countries. A surge in demand for the currency on the part of certain large market participants can be considered a temporary factor in the weakening of the ruble. The tax period may support the ruble, both this week and next. But the strengthening of the national currency in the medium term at levels below 70 rubles. Experts no longer predict. The strength of the trend towards strengthening the basket of currencies against the ruble will be determined by the volumes of Russian energy products sold and, in general, the systemic influence of geopolitical factors.

The probability of the exchange rate returning to the level of 68 rubles / $ remains

The ruble has significantly weakened against foreign currencies this week. The exchange rate first crossed the key mark of 65 rubles/$, and then the mark of 70 rubles/$. Despite the approach of the tax period, the level of volatility has only increased. In this regard, we are expanding our forecasted trading range to 68–73 rubles/$ by the end of the week. The probability of the return of the exchange rate to the level of 68 rubles/$ remains, but so far everything indicates a high probability of further growth of the rate to the level of 71 rubles/$ and above before the end of the week. Of the important events, we highlight the publication on Friday of the index of consumer confidence in the US from the University of Michigan. The release of data worse than expected by market participants will provoke negative expectations, which will put pressure on local currencies.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

Taking into account upcoming payments of 1.44 trillion rubles. more likely to restore the positions of the Russian currency

The rapid weakening of the ruble looks excessive even taking into account the likely decline in export earnings and a decrease in the average ruble price of a barrel this month by 10% compared to November. The volume of trading in the ruble/dollar pair has grown by an average of 30% over the past week, which indicates an increase in the speculative component. Approaching large payments of the tax period and attractive levels of exchange rates for exporters should support the ruble until the end of this week. A negative signal could be the inability of the ruble to at least partially compensate for losses in the midst of the tax period, this may open the way for further weakening. However, taking into account upcoming payments of 1.44 trillion rubles. more likely to restore the positions of the Russian currency.