Dollar rate. Forecast for August 15-19 – Finance – Kommersant
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The ruble finished last week with minimal losses against the US dollar. As a result of Friday’s trading, the US currency exchange rate amounted to 60.62 rubles / $, which is only 2 kopecks. higher than the values of the end of the previous week. Against the backdrop of the peak holiday period and in the absence of trading ideas, the exchange rate fluctuates in a narrow corridor of 59.5–61 rubles/$ for the second week.
;
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| BCS World of Investments | 59.00-62.00 |
| PSB | 60.00-61.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 60.00-62.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 61.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 60.75 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
The ruble may attempt to strengthen with the onset of the tax period
The Russian currency continues to trade in a narrow range, while market activity is at an average level for recent weeks. Minimal rate fluctuations are caused both by the balance of flows for the sale and purchase of currency, and the absence of speculative trading ideas. In the context of declining oil prices, the prospect of strengthening the ruble to 55 rubles / $ is unlikely, while further weakening should be accompanied by a recovery in demand for the currency from importers, which is not observed. Probably, the ruble may attempt to strengthen with the onset of the tax period. However, we estimate the volume of the main tax payments in August at 2.2 trillion rubles, which is 30% less than in July.
The ruble is still largely dependent on energy demand
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble fixed at a relatively stable level. The US dollar is predicted to further decline on the back of the publication of inflation data in the US. In the meantime, another wave of active discussions began on the market about the prospects for the digital ruble and the gradual connection of all Russian banks to its platform in 2024. Not in favor of the ruble, which is still largely dependent on energy demand, news about Norway’s plans to increase exports of natural gas to the European Union. The focus of the Russian market is the regulator’s economic development forecast for the next three years. At the same time, sharp currency fluctuations are not expected at the moment. But in the current conditions, the market situation continues to be under the constant influence of geopolitics.
Increase in volatility in the middle of the week is possible
In the outgoing week, there were no significant changes in the quotes of the dollar in conjunction with the ruble – the currency pair mainly showed sideways movement in the range of 60-61 rubles / $. At the same time, bidders ignored volatility in the oil market, US inflation data, as well as statements by the Central Bank on the admission of non-residents to trading on some sections of the Moscow Exchange. According to our estimates, next week the dollar-ruble pair may move into the range of 58-60 rubles/$ against the backdrop of increased activity of exporters on the market ahead of the tax period. Possible increase in volatility in the middle of the week after the statistics on retail sales for July in the US and the publication of FOMC protocols.
The balance of factors for the Russian currency will not change in the short term
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 59-62. The balance of factors for the Russian currency will not change in the short term, as local support will be added support from the preparation of companies for the tax period. At the same time, in the medium term, we expect the dollar to reach the level of 65 rubles/$ by the end of summer and to 70–73 rubles/$ by the end of the year.
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