Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for September 5-9 – Finance – Kommersant

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The key risk is the renewal of the fiscal rule in a new format

The ruble remains within a narrow range of short-term volatility. The tax period of August did not support the Russian currency, which was prevented by the global strengthening of the dollar against the backdrop of the continued tough rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve regarding the fight against inflation. The ruble price of Urals oil fell by almost 20% over the week, but this did not affect the value of the ruble. The key risk for the position of the Russian currency is the resumption of the fiscal rule in a new format. Obviously, the resumption of currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance and the gradual recovery of imports will put pressure on the ruble.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The Russian currency will continue to demonstrate relative stability

Our forecast for the next week for the ruble against the dollar is 59-62. If there is no news about the approval of the concept of a new fiscal rule and the start of test purchases of foreign currency in the near future, the Russian currency will continue to demonstrate relative stability against the backdrop of a strong current account surplus and high oil and gas prices. Oil quotes, in turn, may continue to recover in the direction of $100 in the event that information is confirmed that the conclusion of the nuclear deal with Iran has stalled again. In the meantime, the news background around this issue remains very controversial.

In general, the Russian stock market continues to show positive dynamics

We forecast low volatility in the dollar/ruble pair and trades in the range of 60–61.5 rubles/$. So far, there is no rush demand for the currency against the background of the existing restrictive policy against Russia. Until the end of the year, we expect a gradual weakening of the ruble after the adoption of a new budget rule. In general, the Russian stock market remains positive due to expectations of generous dividend payments by oil companies, so all new liquidity goes to the Russian stock market. Until the end of the week, we single out the OPEC+ meeting this Monday from significant events. Oil quotes continue to trade at a level above $90 per barrel, which makes the budgets of oil exporting countries, including Russia, in surplus. This provides significant support to the ruble. Also on Wednesday, the eurozone GDP for the second quarter will be published. The market forecast is an increase of 0.6%. If the indicators are lower than predicted, high volatility in the euro/dollar pair can be expected. In addition, the ECB rate decision will take place on Thursday. Market participants are laying down a 75 bp rate hike. and, consequently, the euro may feel stronger than other currencies.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

Oil quotes after several days of decline show strengthening positions

We do not expect an increase in the volatility of the Russian ruble in the coming days. Measures to control the movement of capital continue to act as support. Against geopolitics and instability in the energy market. In the world, the US dollar is renewing multi-year highs amid active discussions of Jerome Powell’s rhetoric about firm plans for the regulator to continue raising the base interest rate as a fight against inflation in the United States. The strengthening of the dollar is also supported by the results of a government report, according to which the number of Americans who have written applications for unemployment benefits is decreasing. Oil quotes after several days of decline show strengthening positions. The focus is on the discussion by the G7 finance ministers of the price ceiling for Russian oil.

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

We do not see clear drivers for the directional dynamics of the dollar/ruble pair

The dollar/ruble pair continues to consolidate in the range of 59-61 rubles, the foreign exchange market remains unprincipled. Reduced trading activity and low volatility in the foreign exchange market is accompanied by holding key volumes in the morning session. We believe that the majority of participants in the market took a break in trading against the backdrop of the beginning of the month. New information has appeared in the media regarding the modified budget rule. Russia is considering buying the equivalent of $70 billion (about 4.4 trillion rubles) in yuan and other currencies of friendly countries in 2022 to slow the growth of the ruble, Bloomberg reports citing its sources. The yuan may become the most attractive currency for the government to buy, however, it is still unclear how transactions with Chinese partners will be established. According to our estimates, this measure could add approximately $500-700 mln to the daily overhang of demand for foreign currency, and the dollar could well rise above the 70 rub mark. At the moment, we do not see clear drivers for the directional dynamics of the dollar / ruble pair. We expect that next week the dollar will continue to consolidate in the range of 59-61 rubles.