Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for September 4–8

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

Steps to overcome the imbalance of imports and exports are still capable of supporting the Russian ruble

The American and European currencies end the working week on the Moscow Exchange, moving in an upward trend. At the moment, the state of affairs in the currency markets is largely determined by further statistics on macroeconomics in the US, the level of US unemployment, which, in turn, act as a benchmark for the Fed’s monetary policy. In the meantime, the tension on the European labor market adds to the uncertainty for the euro. Steps to get out of the imbalance of imports and exports, as well as the positive dynamics of oil quotations, are still able to support the Russian ruble. The focus of attention in the energy market is the news that Russia has agreed with OPEC + on new parameters for reducing oil supplies to foreign markets.

Oil quotes continue to rise smoothly due to the hurricane

Until the end of next week, we predict trading in the dollar/ruble pair in the range of 94.5–97 rubles/$. On Friday, the ruble strengthened on the regulator’s statements about the low probability of a key rate cut at the next meetings, which makes it attractive to invest in Russian ruble-denominated corporate bonds with a maturity of up to three years. Against this background, some investors may begin to take profits on foreign exchange positions and shift to the ruble segment of bonds, which will support the Russian currency. Also, oil quotes continue to rise smoothly due to the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, which increases the likelihood of temporary difficulties for oil production and a reduction in its supply on world markets. For the Russian currency, this creates a positive impulse. Of the important events before the end of the week, we single out the publication on Tuesday of the index of business activity in the service sector of the Russian Federation for August. In July, there was a slowdown compared to June, which indicates a decrease in economic activity. However, the indicator is still above 54 points, which is a fairly high level. On Thursday, China releases a block of statistics on exports and imports for August. The output of indicators worse than expected by market participants may stimulate the strengthening of negative sentiment in global markets and demand for the dollar.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

There are no reasons for the strengthening of the ruble

The ruble will stabilize in the range of 95-97 per dollar, which may become an equilibrium value in the short term. There are no reasons for the strengthening of the ruble, while the authorities once again remind of concerns about a weaker national currency. That is, the weakening to the lows of August may cause a reaction in support of the ruble. The dollar is losing ground globally amid data on rising unemployment in the US in August and a slowdown in wage growth. This is positive for the entire segment of risky assets, including oil.

Verbal Interventions

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that his department and the Central Bank are looking for a consensus on the issue of currency control. He noted that the Ministry of Finance is now in favor of tighter control, and the Central Bank – for softer measures. According to the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, a set of monetary policy measures will be a more effective tool. Verbal interventions, combined with periodic bursts of sales from exporters, can return the dollar to the upper part of the range – 93-96 rubles. The benchmark for the beginning of next week is 94–95.5 rubles/$.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

Remarkable recent statements by the financial authorities

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 94.5–97.5. The dynamics and vector of movement of the exchange rate basically continue to depend on the balance between the inflow of foreign currency from exporters and the activity of domestic demand for it. Locally, the position of the ruble may weaken against the backdrop of the end of the tax period. The factors supporting the national currency include the positive price dynamics in oil towards the end of August, which should translate into an improvement in ruble positions. Recent statements by the financial authorities are also noteworthy. So, on Friday, the ruble reacted with a wave of growth to the statement of Finance Minister Anton Siluanov that the ministry advocates tighter currency control in the current situation and is already discussing this with the Central Bank. On Tuesday, September 5, the Ministry of Finance will publish a report on oil and gas revenues in August and indicate the amount of foreign exchange transactions under the budget rule for the next monthly period.