Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for September 18–22

We don’t rule out local attempts to go higher during the week

After a neutral signal from the Bank of Russia regarding the average rate guideline, the dollar exchange rate remained at 97 rubles/$. We expect that the dollar-ruble pair will remain at the beginning of next week in the upper part of the zone at the beginning of next week – 97-99 rubles/$. During the week, we do not rule out local attempts to go higher.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The Russian currency will continue to trade within the range of 96–98 rubles.

By Friday evening, the Russian currency had consolidated around 97 rubles. for a dollar. Following the results of the next meeting, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate by 1 percentage point, to a level of 13%. The scale of the increase turned out to be expected for the market; the consensus forecast included just such an indicator. At the same time, the Central Bank noted that, if necessary, it could increase the rate further. In the absence of significant news, we expect that the Russian currency will continue to trade within the range of 96–98 rubles. per dollar early next week.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of the Financial Markets Operations Department

The rate is not the main indicator of the ruble exchange rate

The American dollar is currently supported by published macroeconomic statistics in the United States. It speaks of a sufficient margin of safety for the national economy. Important news that may affect the future trajectory of the euro is the ECB raising the rate by 0.25%. At the same time, a signal from the European regulator that the cycle of tightening monetary policy is most likely coming to an end may be a positive thing here. The focus is on Friday’s increase in the key rate by the Central Bank by 100 bps. p., which was expected by most analysts on the Russian market. The rate is not the main indicator of the ruble exchange rate. Its growth will most likely not have a quick impact on the exchange rate, but together with other factors and a strict signal from the regulator, it will also have a cooling effect on the market.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The fundamental picture for the ruble has not changed

The results of the September meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as expected, did not lead to a noticeable reaction from the ruble. An increase in the key rate should be considered as a medium-term measure to support the national currency. It is obvious that the position of the Central Bank on ruble exchange rates has changed and now their dynamics is one of the factors in determining the size of the key rate. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rise, reflecting market expectations that supply shortages will continue until the end of the year. Chinese economic statistics for August give hope for an increase in energy demand from China. Thus, the fundamental picture for the ruble has not changed; the current range of the dollar exchange rate remains the corridor of 95–97 rubles.

Exporters will be able to support the ruble

By the end of the week, we expect trading for the dollar-ruble pair in the range of 96.0–98.5 rubles/$. The decision of the Russian regulator was already included in the quotes of the national currency, so there was no strong reaction. Next week the US Federal Reserve makes a decision on the dollar rate. This will be a key event for global markets this month. The regulator’s decision and comments will determine the risk appetite in global markets. Since July of this year, we have observed a strengthening of the dollar against the backdrop of high interest rates in the United States. Further strengthening will continue to have a negative impact on local currencies, including the ruble. The ruble will be supported by exporters who will begin to sell currency in preparation for the tax period.