Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for September 12-16 – Finance – Kommersant
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The ruble finished the last week with a slight weakening of its positions against foreign currencies. In the first half of the week, the dollar exchange rate overcame the level of 61.5 rubles/$, having added about 1 ruble since the beginning of the week. The exchange rate of the American currency failed to maintain the achieved levels, and following the results of Friday trading, it returned to the level of 60.60 rubles/$, which is only 0.02 rubles. higher than the previous Friday’s close. In the absence of a fiscal rule, the foreign exchange market has an equilibrium between supply and demand.
;
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| PSB | 59.00-61.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 60.00-62.00 |
| BCS World of Investments | 59.00-62.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 61.00 |
| Expobank | 59.50-61.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 60.55 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
The ruble is likely to remain close to current levels
The domestic foreign exchange market is in a state of equilibrium: the overhang of currency supply from exporters is balanced, which is complemented by a decrease in energy supplies to the West. Meanwhile, the ruble price of a barrel of Urals stopped declining and won back some losses. The admission of non-residents from friendly countries to Russian trading floors, expected since the beginning of the week, is unlikely to significantly change the alignment of forces in the foreign exchange market. Until the introduction of the fiscal rule or the receipt of details on this topic, the ruble is likely to remain near current levels.
The main potential factor for the weakening of the ruble in the foreseeable future may be the restart of the budget rule in an updated format
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 59-62. The overall balance of factors for the Russian currency has not fundamentally changed. At the end of the outgoing week, the general market background slightly improved, oil moved to price recovery after a local failure below $90 per barrel. The main potential factor for the weakening of the ruble in the foreseeable future may be the restart of the budget rule in an updated format, however, there are no signs of the Ministry of Finance starting to buy foreign currency. Next Friday there will be a meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the key rate. Baseline expectations include a 50 bp rate cut to 7.5%. Fundamentally, this should work to weaken the national currency, but this effect will be moderate and not instantaneous.
The focus of world attention now is raising the base rate of the ECB for the first time in history by 75 basis points at once
On the side of the Russian ruble – rising oil prices. The dollar exchange rate, meanwhile, by the end of the week showed a decrease against the main world currencies. At the same time, in favor of the growth of the American and European currencies in Russia today – the activity of parallel import programs, which in the future may increase the demand for US dollars and euros. The focus of world attention now is raising the base rate of the ECB for the first time in history by 75 basis points at once as part of the return of inflation to normal levels. Euro reacted to this message by strengthening its positions. And not in favor of the ruble – the news that France plans to support the proposal of the European Commission to introduce a ceiling on the price of Russian pipeline gas. However, several European countries are still against this proposal.
We do not see clear drivers for the directional dynamics of the dollar-ruble pair
The dollar-ruble pair fell below the border of the upward narrow trend, approaching the mark of 60 rubles. Despite a noticeable correction in energy prices, the ruble continues to hold a strong position, fluctuating within the daily volatility. Trading activity in the foreign exchange market remains low, there are no noticeable changes in pairs. At the moment, we do not see clear drivers for the directional dynamics of the dollar-ruble pair. We expect that next week the dollar will continue to consolidate in the range of 59-61 rubles. with possible attempts to return to the upper boundary of the corridor.
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