Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for October 27-28 – Finance – Kommersant

An important event for the Russian market will be the decision on the rate of the Bank of Russia

Until the end of the week, we forecast trading in the range of 61.0-62.5 rubles/$ with a gradual weakening of the ruble against the backdrop of the completion of the period of preparation of companies to pay taxes. Of the important events before the end of the week, we single out the decision of the European Central Bank on the rate, on the expectations of which the European currency is strengthening. Thus, market participants are laying the ECB rate increase to the level of 2%. However, we note that the strengthening of the euro against the dollar may be temporary, since next week the US regulator will make a decision on the rate, where it is also expected to increase. Consequently, after the decision of the American regulator, the euro/dollar pair may again fall below parity. An important event for the Russian market will be the decision on the rate of the Bank of Russia this Friday. One-year OFZ yields reflect its retention at 7.5% per annum. This is positive for the ruble and ruble assets.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

We expect a slight rate cut

The exchange rates of the American and European currencies on the Moscow Exchange behave relatively calmly, without sharp fluctuations. The Russian market is in anticipation of the upcoming decision on the key rate next Friday, which traditionally affects the balance of power, including in the foreign exchange market. We forecast a slight rate cut of 25 bp. to 7.25%, although market consensus suggests that the rate will remain unchanged. In some categories of goods, inflation is rising, but the shift in the behavioral scenario of the population in favor of savings rather than consumption reduces proinflationary risks. The situation with the prospects for a cap on prices for Russian gas, which may increase the volatility of the ruble, remains acute. There is no unequivocal opinion here yet. Thus, the focus is on reports that the Norwegian Ministry of Oil and Energy is against setting marginal prices for Russian gas imported to Europe.

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

In the event of an unexpected decision by the Central Bank on the key rate, active entry of speculators into the market is possible

The dollar exchange rate at the end of October retreated to the average monthly levels, returning to the range of 61-62 rubles. Exporters converting their foreign exchange earnings before tax payments again acted as the key driver of ruble strengthening. According to our estimates, the decline in income of export companies and the recovery of imports may allow the dollar to return to the range of 63–65 rubles. in the first half of November. However, this week we do not expect high volatility in key pairs. It is possible that on Friday, in the event of an unexpected decision by the Central Bank on the key rate, active entry of speculators to the market is possible, however, we still consider this scenario unlikely.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

Moderate pressure on ruble assets is exerted by a tense geopolitical background

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar by the end of this week is 60-63. Support for the Russian currency from the tax period remains behind. Nevertheless, a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand for foreign currency, as well as high levels of oil prices, do not allow the ruble to sink significantly. Moderate pressure on ruble assets is exerted by a tense geopolitical background. At the same time, the situation on the ruble debt market turned from moderately positive to neutral — the RGBI Russian government bond index consolidated near 130.8 points in the first half of the week. According to our estimates, the maintenance of the key rate at the level of 7.5%, which is predicted following the results of the Friday meeting of the Central Bank, is generally a neutral scenario for the national currency.