Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for October 24-28 – Finance – Kommersant
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Last week, the Russian ruble ended up strengthening its position against the world’s leading currencies. As a result of Friday’s trading, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange amounted to 61.29 rubles / $, having lost 80 kopecks in five days. This is facilitated by the supply of foreign currency from exporters, who are preparing for large tax payments. A stronger fall in the US currency was prevented by an increase in geopolitical risks and a recovery in imports.
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| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| BCS World of Investments | 60.00-64.00 |
| Expobank | 60.00-62.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 62.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 60.00-62.00 |
| PSB | 60.00-62.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 61.40 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
Spotlight on the resignation of British Prime Minister Liz Truss
The dollar and euro rates show a decrease in the Moscow Exchange. The Russian ruble is slightly strengthening against the dollar against the backdrop of the tax period and the market’s expectation of a decision on the key rate of the Bank of Russia at the next meeting. The focus is on the resignation of British Prime Minister Liz Truss, and more decisive steps are expected from the ECB to curb inflation. At the same time, news that the situation on the Russian labor market remains stable, and the unemployment rate still retains its position at the same position, is in favor of the ruble. Against the Russian currency are loud statements by the head of the International Energy Agency that Russia has “lost forever” Europe as an oil and gas market. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of news about the high level of occupancy of underground gas storage facilities in the European Union, exchange prices for gas in Europe are noticeably declining, which also does not play in the direction of the ruble.
Investor sentiment has stabilized somewhat
Support for the ruble from the tax period is becoming more and more noticeable. Despite the fact that the peak in tax payments falls on the first half of the week, income tax payments, estimated at 750 billion rubles, at the end of the week can also allow the ruble to maintain a strong position until the end of the month. Judging by the debt market, investor sentiment has somewhat stabilized, which allows minimizing the impact on the ruble of the geopolitical background. Among external factors, it is worth highlighting the pressure on the entire segment of risky currencies due to the growth in the yields of underlying assets. In addition, the continued strengthening of the dollar may lead to a moderate decline in oil prices.
A meeting of the Bank of Russia will be held at the end of next week
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 60-64 rubles/$. After passing through the peak of the tax period, the Russian currency is likely to start retreating in the direction of 63-64 rubles/$. At the same time, much will also depend on the state of the geopolitical background, the vector of commodity prices, the general market risk appetite and the dynamics of the ruble debt market. A meeting of the Bank of Russia will take place at the end of next week, we expect the key rate to remain at 7.5%. For the Russian currency, this will be a generally neutral decision.
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