Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for October 20-21 – Finance – Kommersant
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The Russian ruble strengthened its position against the world’s leading currencies. Yesterday, the dollar exchange rate at the exchange auctions of the Moscow Exchange fell to 61.17 rubles / $, having lost almost 1 ruble since the beginning of the week. Today the “American” won back part of the losses and finished the day at around 61.74 rubles/$. A more confident growth of the Russian currency is hampered by an increase in geopolitical risks and a recovery in imports.
;
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| Russian Standard Bank | 61.00-63.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 63.00 |
| Expobank | 61.00-63.50 |
| BCS World of Investments | 60.00-64.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 62.31 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
The activation of exporters may lead to a moderate strengthening of the Russian currency
The ruble is stable, unlike the stock market, it reacts poorly to the current news background. The ruble is being supported by the start of the tax period; by the end of October, 1.9 trillion rubles will have to be paid on basic taxes. The activation of exporters in the face of declining trading volumes in the dollar and euro paired with the ruble may lead to a moderate strengthening of the Russian currency until the end of this month. The good results of the resumed OFZ auctions of the Ministry of Finance also testify to the stabilization of the situation on the financial market. Against this background, the ruble retains the potential to strengthen by 1-3% until the end of the week.
Signs of a price recovery in oil
Until the end of the week, according to our estimates, the ruble against the dollar may move within the range of 60-63. At the end of the current-beginning of next week, the national currency will continue to receive support from the tax period. Exporters have been actively selling foreign currency since the middle of the month to make tax payments in rubles. In addition, we note signs of price recovery in oil. Among the negative factors, we note the increased tension of the geopolitical background, which puts general pressure on ruble-denominated assets.
Add optimism to the Russian market Rosstat data on the slowdown in price growth in Russia
The Russian ruble is currently in a relatively stable position, avoiding sharp volatility. It is supported by the tax period that began on October 17, the peak of which is expected next week. The exchange rate of the European currency on the Moscow Exchange is declining, breaking its minimum on October 10. Against the background of prospects for further strengthening of the dollar, the rate of the Chinese yuan is also declining, the interest in which has been quite high lately. The Rosstat data on the slowdown in price growth in Russia adds some optimism to the Russian market. In the energy market, there is an increase in world oil prices against the backdrop of increased sanctions rhetoric, a possible shortage in the supply of raw materials and discussions about reducing oil reserves in the United States.
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