Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for October 10-14 – Finance – Kommersant
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Last week, the ruble ended with a strong weakening of its positions against the world’s leading currencies. On Friday, the dollar exchange rate at the exchange auctions of the Moscow Exchange closed above the level of 61 rubles / $, having added more than 2.5 rubles over the week. This was facilitated by a decrease in the supply of foreign currency from exporters, as well as an increase in demand for it from local investors against the backdrop of the eighth package of European sanctions.
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| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| Expobank | 60.00-62.50 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 60.50-62.50 |
| Bank Zenith | 62.00 |
| BCS World of Investments | 62.00-63.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 61.81 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
The Russian currency began to lose ground
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 59-63. The Russian currency began to lose ground, despite the rise in oil prices. First, the September decline in commodity prices has a time lag, as a result of which the volume of foreign exchange earnings from exporters entering the market could be reduced. Secondly, the fears of imposing sanctions against the NCC did not materialize, which could have reduced the number of those wishing to get rid of non-cash dollars and euros as soon as possible. In addition, we note the local weakness in demand for ruble debt. The coming week is likely to continue the gradual devaluation movement with targets in the area of 62-63 rubles/$.
The weakening of the ruble in the medium term will be moderate
In the foreign exchange market, the situation is positive for the ruble. Potential restrictions that the market was waiting for were not realized. At the same time, the decision of OPEC + to reduce production since November caused an increase in oil prices, including prices for Russian oil. High oil prices allow us to expect that the weakening of the ruble in the medium term will be moderate. The main risk for the Russian currency remains the potential return of the fiscal rule, which in a relatively calm market could lead to a weakening of the ruble by 5-7% before the end of the year.
The dollar continues to rise
The Russian ruble is demonstrating a weakening of its positions against the backdrop of a tense geopolitical situation. The escalation of sanctions rhetoric is forcing market players to reduce their positions in “unfriendly” currencies. The approaching tax period may partly support the ruble. At the same time, news about a decrease in the volume of purchases of Russian gas by Finland and its refusal from Russian crude oil is not in favor of the ruble, which directly depends on the prospects for the energy market. The dollar, meanwhile, continues its growth, which began a week ago. Much here depends on data on the US labor market and on the reaction of global investors to their results. The planned increase in the key rate of the US Federal Reserve may also support the US dollar. World oil prices are in anticipation of the projected growth against the backdrop of the decision of OPEC + to significantly reduce the quota for the extraction of raw materials.
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