Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for November 9–10

The key factor in supporting the ruble will remain the obligations of exporters to sell foreign currency earnings

Low volatility and trading volumes in the foreign exchange market are likely due to the end of the tax payment period, as a result of which supply and demand for currency were balanced. We believe that the key factor in supporting the ruble will remain the obligations of exporters to sell foreign currency earnings. A temporary correction in oil prices, in our opinion, is unlikely to lead to a significant increase in speculative demand for currency. The target for the end of the week is 90–92 rubles/$.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The dollar exchange rate is likely to continue to consolidate around 92 rubles.

The ruble looks stable and is not giving up attempts to continue strengthening, despite the negative impact of external factors. Oil prices continue to decline as the risks of escalating conflict in the Middle East have eased somewhat, while lackluster Chinese foreign trade statistics are raising concerns about future demand. Additional pressure on commodity markets also comes from the strengthening dollar after a series of “hawkish” comments from representatives of the US Federal Reserve. In the coming days, the dollar exchange rate will likely continue to consolidate around the 92 ruble mark, since additional positive sources will be required for a more noticeable strengthening of the ruble.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of the Financial Markets Operations Department

Latest statistics on the Chinese economy

At the moment, we can state that there is a trend towards a moderate strengthening of the ruble against the dollar. Factors contributing to this include currency restrictions, increases in the key rate and a subsequent increase in interest in ruble deposits. However, this does not exclude increased volatility of the national currency against the backdrop of growing geopolitical tensions in the world. Meanwhile, global oil prices are falling, breaking through the late-July ceiling, amid a strengthening US dollar, an expected series of high rates in Europe, as well as rising OPEC exports, which has eased concerns about the difficult situation in the Middle East. Tensions were added to the currency and energy markets by fresh statistics from the Chinese economy, indicating a decrease in demand for Chinese exports, as well as data on industrial production in Germany.

The decision of the Bank of Russia made the bond market even more attractive

By the end of this week, we predict the rate will be in the range of 91.5–93 rubles/$. The decree on the mandatory return and sale of part of foreign currency earnings continues to have a positive impact on the Russian currency. The decision of the Bank of Russia to increase the key rate to 15% made the bond market even more attractive. Market participants are already actively buying bonds with a fixed coupon, betting on a certain strengthening of the Russian currency. Among the important events until the end of this week, we highlight the auction for the placement of 10-year US government bonds. The withdrawal of liquidity from the system could negatively impact risk appetite among market participants and, as a result, put pressure on local currencies. Let us add that since November 8, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation has been buying foreign currency and gold for 29.6 billion rubles. in a day. This should stabilize the Russian currency around current levels. We do not yet predict any further significant strengthening of the Russian currency.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The DXY index once again went to annual highs

Our forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate by the end of this week is 91.5–93.5. The Russian currency looks relatively stable, despite the downward correction in oil and the strengthening of the global dollar. Key support for the ruble continues to come from sales of most of the foreign exchange earnings of exporters and the rigidity of the Central Bank’s monetary policy. Meanwhile, Brent quotes fell towards $80 per barrel in light of a sharp increase in US oil inventories, investors’ reassessment of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and fears for future demand in China. At the same time, the dollar is showing strength, the DXY index once again went to annual highs against the backdrop of conflicting signals from the Fed.