Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for November 28-December 2 – Finance – Kommersant

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

Forecasts of the weakening of the Russian currency may not materialize until the end of this year and be postponed to 2023

The November tax period allowed the ruble to abstract from the negative dynamics of oil prices and consolidate in the range of 60–61 rubles. per dollar. According to Zenith Bank, the final income tax payment this month will be 0.5 trillion rubles, which can minimally support the position of the ruble. Meanwhile, the ruble price of oil fell by almost 25% relative to the highs of the current month, which, however, does not cause a negative reaction from the monetary authorities. Before the introduction of the new budget rule, the authorities talk about the importance of a strong ruble for the transformation of the economy, so the forecasts of the weakening of the Russian currency may not materialize until the end of this year and be postponed to 2023.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The ruble reacts poorly to external “irritants”

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar for next week is 60-62. Through price swings in oil and geopolitical collisions, the Russian currency passes unperturbed. The ruble reacts weakly to external “irritants”, relying almost entirely on the balance of supply and demand, based on the purchase of foreign currency by importers and its sale by exporters. Nevertheless, according to our estimates, already next week, after the end of the tax period, the dollar may move to the region of 61-62 rubles.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

The introduction of a ceiling on Russian oil planned by the European Union is capable of weakening the ruble

The Russian ruble is supported by the tax period and the somewhat stabilized situation with oil prices. At the same time, the introduction of a ceiling on Russian oil, planned by the European Union, is obviously capable of weakening the ruble today. However, countries have not yet developed a unified position on this issue. Meanwhile, the degree of quarantine restrictions in China, where new outbreaks of coronavirus infection are again noted, is noticeably rising. This could have a negative impact not only on the current exchange rate of the yuan, but also on the demand for energy resources.

There are factors in favor of a gradual weakening of the national currency

Until the end of next week, we predict the dollar exchange rate trading in the range of 60-61.5 rubles. The ruble will lose support from the conversion of foreign exchange earnings by companies as part of paying taxes during the tax period. Also, oil quotes continue to be under pressure. Thus, there are factors in favor of a gradual weakening of the national currency. Of the important events next week, we highlight the publication of data on US GDP for the quarter and the US GDP price index. Market participants are waiting for a slowdown in the price index, as it affects the mood of the US regulator to change the rate. It is likely that the level of volatility in the markets and in currency pairs will increase after the publication of these data.