Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for November 27–December 1

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

There is no need to talk about the risks of developing a new devaluation round

Our forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate for next week is 87.5–90.5. Pressure may come from the end of the tax season. In addition, the decline in oil prices, noted since the beginning of November, may soon begin to be projected into a weakening of ruble positions. At the same time, there is no need to talk about the risks of developing a new devaluation round. The effect of raising the key rate is accumulating; exporters continue to sell the lion’s share of their revenue on the domestic market. Improved macroeconomic parameters, including a reduction in the budget deficit and an increase in the forecast for GDP growth, also play in favor of the ruble. The OPEC+ meeting will be the focus of attention in the coming week; its results could change the oil price picture.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of the Financial Markets Operations Department

Still remaining geopolitical risks play against the ruble

By the end of the working week, the Russian ruble continues to quite confidently maintain the potential gained over recent days, balancing around the levels of 88 rubles/$. However, there are no particularly bright drivers for its further active upward movement at the moment. The Russian currency continues to be favored by the intensified preparation of exporters for the upcoming tax period, as well as the general situation in the country with the establishment of new supply chains, and the gradual decline in demand for imports against the backdrop of a high rate. At the same time, still existing geopolitical risks play against the ruble. Oil quotes have dropped slightly, so we can’t expect them to support the national currency in the near future either.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

Tax payments may provide short-term support

The ruble looks neutral against the backdrop of volatility in oil prices and the approaching tax period in the Russian Federation. Oil prices may be deprived of growth incentives if the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday decides not to increase production restrictions. Tax payments may serve as short-term support; by Tuesday, 2.75 trillion rubles will have to be transferred to the budget, which is 15% less than October values, but looks significant and can support the ruble. It is also worth highlighting the data on the acceleration of inflation in November, which increases the likelihood of another increase in the key rate at the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in December, which may be positive from the point of view of the attractiveness of the ruble and ruble assets.

Positively assess the immediate prospects of the ruble

At the end of the week, the dollar exchange rate is trying to partially recover and consolidate at around 88–89 rubles, showing the weakening of trading activity observed in recent days, apparently associated with a local reduction in the sale of foreign currency earnings, as well as with increased nervousness in the oil market caused by the postponement of the OPEC meeting + on November 30. We continue to have a positive assessment of the near-term prospects for the ruble, expecting stability in supply from exporters and improving sentiment in the oil market. We expect that the dollar at the beginning of next week will remain in the current target range of 85–90 rubles; we still allow a rollback to its lower limit due to tax payments on November 28.

We expect additional support for the ruble from the conversion of foreign currency earnings

Until the end of next week, the trading range at the rate is in the range of 87.5–89.5 rubles/$. We are observing a gradual repurchase of foreign currency against the backdrop of declining oil prices on the world market. Although, as of Friday evening, oil had already won back some of the losses. Next week we expect additional support for the ruble from the conversion of foreign currency earnings by exporters as part of paying taxes during the tax period. This may stimulate the rate to move to the lower limit of the range we indicated at 87.5 rubles/$. The main event of the week will be the OPEC+ meeting, which will take place on November 30. The most important issue remains the extension of current restrictions on oil production, which end at the end of the year. Among the important events before the end of the year, which can also significantly affect the exchange rate of the national currency, is the meeting of the Bank of Russia on the key rate, which will take place on December 15. Some market participants continue to increase their positions in ruble debt, which has a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate.