Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for November 24-25 – Finance – Kommersant
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Oil price weakness
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar remains at 59-62 until the end of this week. Oil price weakness this week is offset for the Russian currency by the tax period and the overall continued high overhang of foreign exchange supply from exporters. The picture on the ruble debt market remains neutral. In the coming days, increased volatility in oil prices may persist, including in the light of likely decisions and statements from Western countries on the price ceiling for oil exported from the Russian Federation, as well as news from China, which is struggling with a new wave of the spread of COVID-19 .
The reaction of the ruble to the establishment of a cap oil price of $65-70 per barrel is likely to be restrained
The ruble looks neutral despite the decline in oil prices, including Russian grades. The focus is on the G-7 decision on setting a ceiling price for oil imported from Russia. Judging by the reaction of the oil market, this price will not be too low and will be commensurate with current quotes. The Russian currency is supported by the approach of the main phase of the November tax period, as well as a holiday in the US on November 24, which leads to the fact that exporters convert foreign exchange earnings in advance. The reaction of the ruble to the setting of a cap oil price of $65-70 per barrel is likely to be restrained, while the reaction of the Russian authorities to such a decision will be important.
The dollar will continue to trade the range of 60-61 rubles
The dollar exchange rate this week made attempts to go beyond the upper limit of the range of 60-61 rubles. against the background of a sharp weakening of oil prices. However, the growth of the US currency was short-lived due to the ongoing tax period, as well as the recovery in oil prices. It is worth noting that the volume of dollar trading with “tomorrow” settlements was the lowest since the beginning of April, which we attribute to the declining role of the dollar in Russia’s foreign trade. According to our estimates, the dollar in the second half of the week will continue to trade in the range of 60-61 rubles. with attempts to go beyond the upper limit against the background of the end of the main tax payments. Thursday is a public holiday in the US, and Friday is a short working day. We do not expect high volatility in the global stock and commodity markets and, as a result, in the domestic foreign exchange market.
Support for the Russian ruble at the moment can be provided by the intensification of sales of foreign currency by exporters
On the Moscow Exchange, the euro, unlike the dollar, which is going down, shows strengthening. At the center of investors’ discussions are the prospects for the EU and the G7 to agree on a price ceiling for Russian oil. Against this background, world prices for Brent crude oil are declining. Concerns about the demand for fuel from China may also act as reasons. At the same time, the ruble exchange rate is slightly declining against the US dollar and growing against the Chinese yuan. Support for the Russian ruble at the moment can be provided by the activation of sales of foreign currency by exporters. Events in the geopolitical field, where the degree of tension is not decreasing, still remain decisive. Also, the trajectory of the ruble continues to be corrected by gradually recovering imports, as well as the prospects for a decrease in exports in the event of an aggravation of the geopolitical agenda.
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