Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department
It is worth highlighting the approaching main tax payments
The ruble is correcting downwards against the backdrop of falling oil prices. The postponement of the OPEC and OPEC+ meetings from the weekend to next Thursday may indicate a lack of consensus among cartel participants regarding the level of oil production necessary to maintain a comfortable price environment. Among the internal factors of support, it is worth highlighting the approach of the main tax payments in November, which we estimate at 2.75 trillion rubles. This could become a significant support for the ruble even if the negative situation on the commodity markets continues.
The DXY dollar index turned up
Our forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate by the end of this week is 87–90. The peak of the tax period will be passed at the beginning of next week; in the coming days, purchases of rubles by exporters for upcoming tax payments will continue to support the Russian currency. Meanwhile, the DXY dollar index turned upward, rebounding from local lows, while the price of oil fell sharply after reports of the postponement of the OPEC+ meeting to November 30. We believe that increased volatility in black gold quotes may persist until this meeting.
Evgeniy Loktyukhov,
Head of Economic and Industry Analysis Department
The US currency will continue to remain under pressure in the coming days
On Wednesday, the ruble took another pause in strengthening against key currencies: the rate is trying to stay above 88 rubles/$, but is growing very restrained, despite a new wave of sales in the oil market and the rebound of the dollar against world currencies. We do not yet see fundamental reasons for the deterioration of the situation on the oil market, so we proceed from the fact that the deterioration of the external background will be local in nature and will not have a significant negative impact on the course of trading on the foreign exchange market. We believe that the US currency will continue to remain under pressure in the coming days, gravitating towards the zone of 83–85 rubles. The key support will remain the sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters who are preparing for the upcoming tax payments (November 28), as well as limited demand from imports, which is natural in an environment of high rates.
Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of the Financial Markets Operations Department
The market is relatively quiet
The ruble continues to grow, but we can hardly expect it to strengthen excessively. Among the main factors supporting the national currency at the moment is the approaching tax period, as well as the general situation with the Russian economy, which continues to be on course for recovery. The American dollar, against the backdrop of increased sales of foreign currency earnings from exporters, showed a weakening position. Meanwhile, world oil prices do not show sharp fluctuations. The market is in relative calm amid anticipation of the OPEC+ meeting, from which a signal to tighten is expected, as well as after the publication of the American Petroleum Institute’s estimate of weekly inventories in the United States.
Polina Khvoinitskaya,
Head of Investment Strategy and Analytics
Market participants await OPEC+ meeting
By the end of this week, we are reducing the forecast for the exchange rate to the range of 88.5–90 rubles/$. The rate reached 87.6 rubles/$, and then the currency was bought back by market participants. Let us note that we are observing a decline in oil prices on world markets. Market participants are awaiting the OPEC+ meeting, which will take place on November 30. The main issue remains the extension of current restrictions on oil production, which end at the end of the year. In addition, all professional market participants are waiting for news about a possible additional reduction in production, but the likelihood of this scenario is low. Therefore, we are seeing a decline in oil prices on the market. In the medium term, this will affect the balance of payments of the Russian Federation and will stimulate market participants to look for an equilibrium market rate in the range of 90–100 rubles/$.
