Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for November 14-18 – Finance – Kommersant
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The ruble ended the week with a confident strengthening of its positions against the world’s leading currencies. As a result of Friday’s exchange trading, the dollar closed at 60.54 rubles/$, up 1.56 rubles. lower than the previous week’s close. The strong position of the ruble is facilitated by the return of oil prices to the range of $95-100 per barrel, as well as the global decline in the US currency on encouraging inflation data in the US.
;
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| BCS World of Investments | 58.50-62.50 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 60.50-62.00 |
| Expobank | 60.00-62.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 60.00-61.00 |
| PSB | 59.00-61.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 60.65 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
The positive on foreign markets may continue next week, which will support the position of the ruble
The USD/RUB pair has gone down since trading on Monday. The key driver was the jump in oil prices – the cost of a barrel of oil rose above $ 99 for the first time since the end of summer. In the second half of the week, the pressure on the dollar intensified both against the backdrop of growing risk appetite on the domestic stock market and the external weakness of the US currency due to the released statistics on US inflation. Taking into account the released data on US inflation, we are locally changing the current range of the dollar exchange rate. According to our estimates, the positive on foreign markets may continue next week, which will support the position of the ruble. At the same time, the technical picture favors the depreciation of the dollar, and in the current conditions, the dynamics of the currency are shaped by speculators. Next week, the dollar may inertially fall to the lower limit of the range of 59-61 rubles. We do not observe strong drivers for the growth of the US currency.
The ruble is less dependent on foreign capital flows and the sentiment of world markets
The Russian currency is strengthening against the backdrop of a global positive associated with a sharp weakening of the dollar after the publication of encouraging inflation data in the US in October. The ruble is less dependent on foreign capital flows and world market sentiment than most high-yielding currencies. However, through the channel of oil and gas revenues, an increase in the presence of exporters in the domestic foreign exchange market is likely. The tax period in the current month is less costly than in October, which can only provide moderate support to the ruble in the second half of the month.
The Russian ruble is under pressure from reports of a noticeable increase in purchases of liquefied natural gas by the European Union
The Russian ruble is behaving quite confidently, at the end of the working week adding in price to the US dollar. Euro on the Moscow Exchange show a downward trend in the rate. Not in favor of the euro news from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany on the acceleration of inflation in this country in October to 10.4% in annual terms, while in September the figure was 10%. At the same time, the Russian ruble is under pressure from reports of a noticeable increase in the EU’s purchases of liquefied natural gas in 2022 as part of the replacement of gas from Russia. Adding optimism to the US currency, the data of the BLS report on October US inflation, published on Thursday, which in annual terms fell more actively than market expectations, to a minimum since January 2022 and dropped below 8% for the first time since February.
The dollar exchange rate may occasionally go below the level of 60 rubles / $
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 58.5-62.5. Volatility in the currency pair may increase in the short term. Within a week, the approach of the tax period may begin to affect: many companies start selling foreign currency in advance and accumulate rubles for payments at the end of the month. If this is accompanied by continued high oil prices and overall positive sentiment, the dollar may occasionally drop below the 60 rub/$ level.
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