Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for May 25–26

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

We do not rule out a local surge in volatility amid uncertainty about the US public debt

The dollar-ruble pair continues to consolidate around the mark of 80 rubles. On the currency market of the Moscow Exchange, a balance has been formed between supply and demand for currency. On the one hand, active operations of exporters have ended in anticipation of the payment of dividends, on the other hand, the activity of importers in the market has been reduced, which is why investors do not observe volatility. We believe that this week the ruble will make light attempts to grow, and therefore we leave the current range of 79-80.5 rubles. We do not rule out a local surge in volatility amid uncertainty about the US public debt.

Investors in global markets prefer to increase their positions in the US dollar

Until the end of the week, we predict trading in the dollar / ruble pair in the range of 79.5-81 rubles / $ with a weakening trend for the Russian currency. The ruble is getting support from rising oil prices, which received a positive boost against the backdrop of data on the reduction of crude oil inventories in the United States, as well as a possible reduction in production at the OPEC + meeting in June. At the same time, we are seeing an increase in risk-off sentiment in global markets due to the lack of consensus on the debt ceiling in the US. Investors in world markets prefer to increase their positions in the US dollar. We believe that the issue of the US debt ceiling will continue to exert negative pressure on world markets, including local currencies. But this factor will influence the ruble to a lesser extent.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

In the coming trading days, local support for the ruble may be more pronounced

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar by the end of this week is 77.5–80.5. The Russian currency reacts with restraint to the positive in the form of an upward impulse in oil prices and the preparation of companies for the tax period. Among the possible reasons hindering the active strengthening of the ruble, one can note the general risk aversion of investors in the light of the tense external market background and aggravated geopolitics, as well as the strengthening of the dollar itself against major currencies. The index of the American currency DXY in the middle of the week exceeded 105.6 points. Meanwhile, the peak of the tax period is getting closer, this month it will fall on the 29th. We believe that in the coming trading days the local support for the ruble may be more pronounced.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The ruble can be supported by exporters with the conversion of foreign exchange earnings

The Russian currency will stabilize around the level of 80 rubles. per dollar due to the lack of significant drivers. The approach of the main tax payments in May, which we estimate at 2.3 trillion rubles, reduces the attractiveness of speculative strategies against the ruble. World oil prices are rising, while the dollar remains strong against most currencies. Risky assets are under pressure from the uncertainty associated with the agreement on the US national debt ceiling. In the second half of the week, exporters can support the ruble with the conversion of foreign exchange earnings, but this process has been unstable in recent months, so one should not count on a noticeable strengthening of the ruble during this period.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

Rising oil prices are positive factors in the foreign exchange market

The exchange rate of the Russian ruble is supported by the approaching peak of the period of tax payments. As positive factors in the foreign exchange market – rising in price oil. At the same time, the dollar continues to rise in price in the world due to protracted negotiations on the ceiling of the US national debt, where, if it is not raised by the summer, a technical default on US government bonds may occur. The Chinese yuan is still weakening its positions. Not in his favor is another aggravation of the economic dialogue between China and the United States on a number of positions. News from the eurozone is mixed. The news about the decrease in the business climate index in Germany in May does not add optimism to the European currency, however, in the UK, annual inflation in April showed a slowdown to 8.7% from 10.1% in March.