Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for May 10–12

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

There is a high level of volatility in the market

The dollar ends the current week at 77 rubles. As part of the weekly trading, the dollar / ruble pair showed a decrease, driven by speculative activity in the market. The news background was more for the ruble: the Ministry of Finance kept selling yuan during May in the amount of 2 billion rubles. daily, the dollar became cheaper in foreign markets, the strengthening of the national currency took place against the backdrop of a correction in oil prices. On Friday, the dollar / ruble pair inertially decreased in the range of 76-77 rubles, but returned above 77 rubles. against the backdrop of fixing short positions by bidders before the holidays. There is a high level of volatility on the market, which is why we are expanding the range for the dollar / ruble pair for the next week to 75-78 rubles. An important role may be played by US inflation statistics, which may turn out to be better than market expectations, which, in turn, will put pressure on the dollar.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The dividend factor may still allow the ruble to break away from reality for some time

The ruble noticeably recovered its positions in the thin market between the May holidays. It is more likely that the ruble was supported by the dividend factor, when exporters increased the supply of foreign currency to accumulate liquidity in accounts for future payments. Fundamentally, the picture for the ruble does not look positive: oil prices are low, the plan for oil and gas revenues of the budget is still not being fulfilled. The decline in yuan sales in May under the fiscal rule was expected, which is unlikely to have a significant impact on the value of the ruble. The dividend factor may still allow the ruble to break away from reality for some time, but in the medium term, the Russian currency is unlikely to consolidate below the level of 78–80 rubles.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

Demand for foreign currency for imports after the long May holidays may rise again

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 76-79. By the end of the outgoing week, the recovery in oil prices gave confidence to the Russian currency, and the impulse for ruble strengthening may continue for some time. The gradual reduction of the geopolitical discount for oil sold by Russia, the improvement of the situation with the balance of the state budget, as well as the local cooling of importers’ activity supported the ruble. At the same time, the demand for foreign currency for imports after the long May holidays may again go up, which will already play against the national currency. The geopolitical background for ruble assets may also worsen in the foreseeable future.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

The strengthening of the national currency looks unsustainable

The current strengthening of the ruble is caused by several factors: firstly, companies sell foreign exchange earnings for the payment of dividends, and secondly, against the backdrop of a decrease in business activity during the May holidays, the demand for importers in foreign currency has obviously decreased. The national currency is also supported by a decrease in the discount to the Russian oil mark, which compensated for the general decline in black gold quotations. The decision of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation to almost halve the sale of foreign currency in May within the framework of the budget rule also adds volatility to the ruble. However, the strengthening of the national currency looks unsustainable, as the ruble remains fundamentally under pressure amid limited Russian exports and geopolitical factors. Investors have already won back the results of the meetings of the Fed and the ECB, which supported the possibility of completing the cycle of tightening monetary policy.

The Russian currency has a chance to gain a foothold at around 76.5 rubles / $

Until the end of next week, we forecast trading in the dollar/ruble pair in the range of 76.5–78.5 rubles/$. In general, the ruble received a powerful impetus to strengthen against the backdrop of rising oil prices and the conversion of foreign exchange earnings by companies to pay dividends. Until the end of the month, the Russian currency has a chance to gain a foothold at around 76.5 rubles/$ and even lower. Of the important events before the end of next week, we expect the publication of data on inflation in the US. Market participants predict its preservation at the level of 5% per annum. If the indicator falls below market participants’ expectations, it may stimulate an increase in risk appetite among trading participants and, as a result, an increase in demand for local currencies. Although this will have an impact on the ruble to a lesser extent.