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Denis Buivolov,
analyst
The decision of the Ministry of Finance for many analysts came as a surprise
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 74.5-76.5. External and internal conjuncture for the Russian currency worsened by the end of last week. Here are the increased pressure of geopolitics, and the loss of confidence in oil prices, and the decision of the Ministry of Finance in the new monthly period from March 7, within the framework of the budget rule, to sell 1.6 times less yuan than in February. The latter came as a surprise to many analysts, and locally not the most pleasant news for the ruble. However, this decision indicates a likely reduction in the volume of lost oil and gas budget revenues, and this, on the contrary, is already favorable in terms of the national currency’s medium and long-term prospects.
Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department
The reorientation of Russia’s foreign trade to the East can take place in comfortable conditions
Probably, the main phase of the ruble weakening is over, as supportive news comes to the fore. The reduction in the amount of currency sales by the Ministry of Finance is neutral, since the smaller supply of yuan in the market may indicate the normalization of export earnings, which is a positive signal. Strong economic statistics from China confirms that the reorientation of Russia’s foreign trade to the East can take place in comfortable conditions.
Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst
We do not observe significant factors for the strengthening of the ruble
Trading activity in USD with “tomorrow” settlements showed a gradual decrease last week, retreating to the average values of February. We believe that the market is dominated by an oversupply of rubles due to the low activity of exporters due to the beginning of the month factor. Note that high volatility was not observed in other key currency pairs of the Moscow Exchange. Next week, the range of 75–76 rubles will remain relevant. Reduced trading activity on the part of exporters will continue on the market, while additional support for foreign currencies will be provided by the decision of the Ministry of Finance to reduce the daily volume of foreign currency sales by 1.6 times, to 5.4 billion rubles. At the moment, we do not observe significant factors for the strengthening of the ruble.
Polina Khvoynitskaya,
Head of Investment Strategy and Analytics
The road to the level of 76.5 rubles/$ is opening.
Until the end of next week, we forecast trading at the dollar rate in the range of 74.5–76.5 rubles/$. The Russian currency will show moderately negative dynamics against the backdrop of declining oil prices. It should be noted that the growth of import flows also puts pressure on the ruble, which increases the demand for foreign currencies among participants in foreign economic activity. From the point of view of technical analysis, after overcoming the important resistance at the level of 75 rubles/$, the road to the level of 76.5 rubles/$ opens. Although for this a trigger should appear in the form of a news background. Prior to the appearance of this news background, the ruble will rather gradually weaken against foreign currencies, making attempts to win back part of the losses with an increase in risk appetite in the financial markets. Note that one of the most important events for the Russian market will take place on March 17, when the Bank of Russia will make a decision on the key rate.
Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department
The negative factor for the euro may be the news about the decrease in the index of business activity in the euro area in February
Adding optimism to the Russian market news about the growth of the country’s oil and gas revenues in February compared to January of the current year. At the same time, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble is still under pressure from many factors, from the geopolitical situation to the current increase in inflationary risks and signals of increased demand for foreign currency from importers. At the center of the discussion of investors is the announced reduction in the sale of foreign currency under the budget rule by the Russian Ministry of Finance from March 7. In the meantime, the negative factor for the euro may be the news about the decline in the index of business activity in the eurozone in February. As before, hopes for an improvement in the situation in the oil, and with it the currency markets, are pinned on the speed of recovery of the Chinese economy.
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