Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for March 28–29

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

Pressure from external markets comes from the strengthening dollar

The ruble is stabilizing in the range of 92-93 rubles. for a dollar. The main local factor is the tax period, which increases the supply of currency in the domestic market. The volume of payments in March was almost 50% more than the previous month, which limits speculative activity against the national currency. Pressure from external markets comes from the strengthening of the dollar against most currencies and a downward correction of the entire segment of risky assets, including oil prices.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of the Financial Markets Operations Department

The market is currently focusing on the latest inflation data in the US

The ruble meets the middle of the working week without noticeable volatility, without losing its positions on the Moscow Exchange. The peak of tax payments this week continues to support the national currency. The market is currently focusing on fresh data on inflation in the US, which may support the US dollar. Statistics on orders for durable goods, which turned out to be better than experts predicted, can also add to his optimism. The balance of power in the global foreign exchange market in the coming days may be affected by the publication of the price index of American personal consumption expenditures, as well as fresh data on the dynamics of US GDP. Meanwhile, API data on a noticeable increase in raw material inventories over the week caused world oil prices to decline.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

Demand for foreign currency remains high

Our forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate by the end of this week is 91-93. The Russian currency is strengthening this week with impulses, which is apparently due to additional sales of currency during the peak days of the tax period. At the same time, the demand for foreign currency remains high, and the trend for ruble strengthening is unstable. Moreover, from the current dynamics it can be assumed that at the end of the period of fiscal payments, the dollar may return to 93, especially if the “American” remains strong against other currencies (DXY remains at 104 points). High rates and currency control measures will continue to hinder the development of the devaluation movement.

Dmitry Rozhkov,
treasury director

By the end of the week, the ruble may strengthen to 90.33-91.36 rubles. per US dollar

Tomorrow, March 28, marks the peak of tax payments, which this month will be “fat”, since the final tax payment for 2023 and the advance payment for the first quarter of 2024, as well as the quarterly tax on additional income, will be added to the monthly payments of exporters for the mineral extraction tax. (NDD). We expect that by the end of the week the ruble may strengthen to 90.33-91.36 rubles. per US dollar.

The recovery of the ruble is taking place against the backdrop of a local deterioration in the situation on the oil market

By the middle of the week, the ruble began to strengthen: against the background of high trading activity, the dollar exchange rate dropped to the lower part of our current target range of 91.5-93 rubles. The main support for the domestic currency is provided by the eve of the tax period – on March 28, companies pay the main taxes. The recovery of the ruble is taking place against the backdrop of a local deterioration in the situation on the oil market, where Brent quotes have fallen back to $85 per barrel. The current movements of the dollar-ruble pair still fit into the scenario of volatile consolidation under the important resistance of 93-93.5 rubles. We believe that after the taxes are passed, sales from exporters will weaken and the dollar will return to this level by the end of the week. The US currency will most likely test the strength of this zone in April.