Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for March 16-17 – Finance – Kommersant
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The dollar has stabilized locally on global markets
The dollar-ruble pair failed to build on Monday’s decline, returning to the level of 76 rubles/$. Trading activity in the dollar with “tomorrow” settlements after a surge on March 13 returned to its average weekly values, while the dollar gradually regained its positions. We believe that the dynamics was caused by the weakening of oil prices on the back of US inflation data released in line with expectations. The dollar has stabilized locally on global markets – the risk of the Fed’s key rate hike in March remains significant. The dollar-ruble pair will continue to trade in the range of 75–77 rubles/$ until the end of the week, mainly playing out the volatility of global financial markets.
Before the beginning of the tax period in March, it is unlikely that the ruble will begin to strengthen
The ruble is losing ground amid the global recovery of the dollar. The banking crisis is spreading to Europe, putting pressure on the single currency. Meanwhile, world oil prices continue to fall, reflecting fears of a financial crisis in major Western economies. Against this background, the upcoming meetings of the ECB and the Fed, where regulators are likely to continue to tighten monetary policy and thereby reduce the prospects for growth in global energy demand. At the upcoming meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, tough rhetoric is likely to continue, which looks rather neutral for the Russian currency. Before the beginning of the tax period in March, it is unlikely that the ruble will begin to strengthen, since there are no fundamental factors contributing to this.
The tax period is approaching, before which exporters begin to sell foreign currency
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar remains at 75-77 until the end of this week. The Fed took urgent measures to prevent the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank from escalating into a full-fledged banking crisis. However, the negative sentiment towards credit institutions crossed the borders of the United States – the shares of the Swiss Credit Suisse fell by more than 20%. Against the backdrop of risk aversion, oil continued to fall in price, a barrel of Brent retreated to $75 per barrel. At the same time, the EU is considering lowering the price ceiling for Russian oil by $5, to $55 per barrel. At the same time, the tax period is approaching, before which exporters begin to sell foreign currency. This should keep the ruble weakening, especially since the volume of tax payments to the budget and off-budget funds in March is expected to be about 70% higher than in February.
Sanctions rhetoric does not add optimism, as well as the geopolitical situation
The Russian ruble reacted relatively calmly to the decline in oil prices. The fiscal rule and tax payments continue to be positive factors for its course. The ruble can be supported by the continued establishment of new flows of supply chains in the current economic conditions. At the moment, the news about the bankruptcy of US banks is against the US dollar, which can slightly weaken its current rate. However, the publication of price statistics for February in the US adds to his optimism, according to which inflation has slowed down. At the same time, reports that Estonia, Lithuania and Poland have proposed lowering the price ceiling for Russian oil may not be in favor of the ruble, which depends on the state of affairs in the energy market. The sanctions rhetoric, as well as the geopolitical situation, do not add optimism.
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