Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for March 13-17 – Finance – Kommersant

Of the important events, we highlight the decision of the Bank of Russia on the key rate on Friday

Until the end of next week, we expect trading in the range of 75-77 rubles/$. This week the appetite for risky assets has significantly decreased amid problems in a number of US banks related to investments in start-ups. Investors preferred to shift into gold, US government bonds and the dollar. Against this background, local currencies became cheaper, including the ruble. Although these events had an impact on our market to a lesser extent. Of the important events before the end of next week, we highlight the decision of the Bank of Russia on the key rate on Friday. There is a possibility that after this decision the Russian currency will win back part of the losses against the dollar, but the long-term trend towards the weakening of the ruble remains. Also on Thursday, the decision on the interest rate will be made by the European regulator. Market participants expect it to increase to 3.5% per annum, which is a rather high level that negatively affects economic activity.

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

The main driver of the dollar exchange rate will be statistics on inflation in the United States

Volatility in the currency market and trading activity decreased within the week. There is a shortage of foreign currency on the market both due to the low activity of exporters due to the factor of the beginning of the month, and the decrease in foreign currency sales by the Ministry of Finance. Next week, the USD/RUB pair will move into the range of 76-77 rubles/$. The main driver of the dollar rate will be inflation statistics in the US, which, according to our estimates, may turn out to be worse than market expectations.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

The upcoming meeting on the key rate will not have a significant impact on the balance of power in the market

As a support for the Russian ruble, the upcoming start of the tax payment period can act. At the same time, pressure on the exchange rate of the Russian currency may be exerted by the discussed prospects for the US decision to lower the price ceiling for Russian oil. The dollar, meanwhile, ends the week with growth on the Moscow Exchange. The upcoming meeting on the key rate will not have a significant impact on the balance of power in the market. With a high degree of probability, the regulator will continue the pause, leaving the rate unchanged at 7.5%. The main reason: the absence of clear indicators indicating the deviation of inflation in one direction or another. In addition, due to permanent geopolitical risks, the effects on the economy and inflation of a number of events are not yet clear. The focus of investors is also the upcoming decision on the key rate by the US Federal Reserve, which may be affected by the February data on unemployment.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

Exporters may provide some support to the ruble from the middle of the month

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 75-77 rubles/$. The Russian currency remains under pressure from the sanctioned contraction of export flows and the persistence of a significant geopolitical discount on energy resources sold. In addition, the prices for black gold, as well as the general market risk appetite, have shown a decrease in recent days against the backdrop of harsh signals from the US Federal Reserve. Some support from the middle of the month to the ruble can be provided by exporters who can sell foreign currency in advance to pass the tax period.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

Export inflows are decreasing against the backdrop of a decrease in the volume of physical oil production in the Russian Federation

The ruble is gradually losing ground, finding itself without support from fundamental factors. In the domestic market, the balance of power is once again shifted in favor of foreign currency buyers. Export inflows are decreasing against the backdrop of a decrease in the volume of physical oil production in the Russian Federation. Moreover, world oil prices are declining, fearing a tighter monetary policy of the main central banks, which puts pressure on the price of Russian oil. Lower yuan selling under the fiscal rule results in less support for the ruble during a global risk aversion. Despite the short-term negative dynamics, the Russian currency is able to stabilize in the range of 76-77 rubles/$.