Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for June 22–23
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At the beginning of the week, the dollar rate on the Moscow Exchange continued to strengthen by inertia. On Tuesday, it again consolidated above the level of 84 rubles/$, and on Wednesday, at the beginning of the day, it was able to approach the level of 85 rubles/$. He failed to maintain the achieved levels, and at the end of the day he closed at around 83.98 rubles / $, which is 18 kopecks. lower than last week’s close. The behavior of the exchange rate was determined by internal factors, including the preparation of companies for the next tax period, which compensated for the increased demand for foreign currency from importers and speculators.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| Russian Standard Bank | 83.00-85.00 |
| PSB | 83.50-84.00 |
| Expobank | 83.00-85.00 |
| BCS World of Investments | 81.50-84.50 |
| Bank Zenith | 84.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 83.75 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
The dollar looks locally overbought
Difficulties with the repatriation of funds by exporters persist, while, according to the Federal Customs Service, imports to the Russian Federation have returned to pre-crisis levels, which weakens the position of the ruble. The dollar looks locally overbought. We focus on the consolidation of the dollar in the range of 83–85 rubles.
The ruble is trying to strengthen its position
The US dollar showed growth in anticipation of the speech on the report for half a year by the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, on monetary policy (MP), which will largely determine the further mood in world markets. In the near future, according to investors’ forecasts, further tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy and at least two rate hikes. The ruble, meanwhile, is trying to strengthen its position, and the upcoming peak of tax payments should help it in this. Another important event in the period of increased attention to the restoration of the strength of the Chinese economy is the reduction of two basic key rates at once, on one-year and five-year loans, by the People’s Bank of China. Oil prices are jumping, sharply reacting to news from the United States and China, either falling or strengthening their positions. In the energy market, the focus is on data from the American Petroleum Institute on the change in reserves of oil, gasoline and distillates in the United States.
The tax period factor may not provide visible support to the Russian currency
The ruble remains within the short-term range of dollar exchange rate volatility of 83.5–85.5 rubles. Demand for the currency remains elevated, but the approach of the June tax period limits the support of the ruble’s downward movements by speculators. The peak of tax payments falls on the middle of next week, we estimate their volume at 2.4 trillion rubles, which is only slightly higher than the May payments. Thus, the factor of the tax period, similarly to the previous month, may not provide visible support to the Russian currency. However, in the coming days, the rates are likely to consolidate within the current ranges.
June tax period is approaching its peak
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar by the end of this week is 82.5–84.5. The June tax period is approaching its peak. Additional volumes of currency sales by exporters, who accumulate rubles for upcoming payments, these days can support the Russian currency most clearly. We also note the recovery dynamics of oil prices in the middle of the week – a barrel of Brent again holds the course in the direction of $80. At the same time, geopolitics remains sharp, there have been reports that the EU has agreed on another package of sanctions against the Russian Federation. The picture is not in favor of the ruble on the ruble debt market either – the RGBI government bond index fell below 129 points.
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