Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst
In the coming days, the dollar exchange rate will move to consolidation in the range of 82-85 rubles / $
On Wednesday, the dollar tested the level of 85 rubles, our basic target of the upward movement of the last days, and rolled back lower amid a noticeable improvement in the situation on the oil market and a constructive news flow from the SPIEF. It also supports the weakening of the dollar against world currencies, caused today by the expectations of the outcome of the Fed meeting. We expect that in the coming days the dollar will move towards consolidation in the range of 82-85 rubles. /$. For the further weakening of the ruble, we do not yet see any significant opportunistic grounds. We are waiting for a gradual increase in the supply of foreign currency from exporters, including in view of the approaching tax period.
Polina Khvoynitskaya,
Head of Investment Strategy and Analytics
Pause in rate hike will create positive sentiment in financial markets
Until the end of the week, we expect trading in the dollar / ruble pair in the range of 83-85 rubles / $. Last week, the exchange rate passed the important level of 80 rubles/$, after which the way is opened for further gradual weakening of the Russian currency. On Wednesday, the rate was already testing the level of 85 rubles/$, which we predicted as an important resistance level. Of the important events before the end of the week, we single out the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the rate, which will take place on Wednesday. A pause in the rate hike will create positive sentiment in the financial markets. So far, market participants are pawning the preservation of the rate at the current level, which creates demand for local currencies. Although it affects the ruble to a lesser extent.
In the near future, the gradual recovery of the ruble and the movement of the dollar in the direction of 82 rubles / $
The devaluation round in the Russian currency has reached a local limit. Episodic exits to new extremes are still possible, however, we basically expect in the near future a gradual recovery of the ruble and the movement of the dollar in the direction of 82 rubles / $. After the decline, oil prices returned to $75 and may continue to grow in light of the likely strengthening of the downward correction of the dollar index after the Fed meeting. In addition to monetary signals, market participants are focused on geopolitics, macroeconomic markers, general market sentiment, and the situation on the ruble debt market.
Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department
The dollar on the Moscow Exchange is growing, updating the April highs
As support for the Russian currency, the approach of the tax period and the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters can play. At the same time, the decline in oil prices at the beginning of the week against the backdrop of a recession in European countries, as well as a decrease in the volume of foreign exchange inflows, dragged the Russian ruble along with it. Meanwhile, the dollar on the Moscow Exchange is growing, updating the April highs. The focus is on the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting in June, as well as fresh economic data from China. As positive news for the energy, and with it the currency markets, there are signals about the easing of the monetary policy of China and an unexpected decrease in the key lending rate, which happened for the first time in the last 10 months.
Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department
Weakness in fundamental data usually does not play out in such an accelerated mode.
The rapid rate of ruble depreciation observed in recent days carries a significant part of the speculative component. There are no important reasons for reducing the value of the Russian currency. The weakness of fundamental data usually does not win back in such an accelerated mode. The preservation of domestic demand for foreign currency is not so great that the ruble continues to rapidly fall in price. At current levels, it is possible for exporters to become more active in the market, since the exchange rate of foreign exchange earnings looks attractive. This can force speculators to take short-term profits. There is no talk yet about the return of the ruble to the level of 80 rubles/$, and the exchange rate will probably stay in the range of 83.5–85.5 rubles/$.