Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for July 17–21

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

Technically and fundamentally, the ruble remains oversold

According to our estimates, the positions of the national currency were supported by the continued growth of oil prices. At the same time, we do not rule out that activity in the exporters’ market has expanded, which is usually characteristic of the middle of the month. If the dollar exchange rate can develop a decline under the mark of 90 rubles, then the horizon for reaching our target values ​​of 86–88 rubles opens. during the next trading sessions. Technically and fundamentally, the ruble remains oversold, which means that there is still potential for strengthening the national currency.

The Russian currency continues to receive support from gradually recovering oil prices on world markets

Until the end of next week, we expect trading in the dollar-ruble pair in the range of 88.2–91.2 rubles/$. We forecast some strengthening of the Russian currency against the backdrop of the meeting of the Bank of Russia on the key rate, which will be held on Friday. Market participants expect an increase in the key rate. Yields on one-year OFZs are at the level of 8.05% per annum, which means that the market has set a rate hike to 8% per annum from the current 7.5% per annum. Also, the Russian currency continues to receive support from the gradually recovering oil prices on world markets. The dollar index is declining, which leads to an increase in prices for all commodity assets. The beneficiaries of this process are all currencies of oil exporting countries, including the Russian ruble. Although this influence has a limited impact on the ruble, unlike other currencies.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

Rising rates are fundamentally positive for the national currency

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 88-91. The balance of factors for the ruble has slightly improved: oil quotes have risen above $80, and with a time lag this is broadcast in support of the national currency, the global dollar has retreated, the July tax period is approaching, the peak of which will fall on the 25th and 28th. Based on the results of the Bank of Russia meeting on July 21, we expect the key rate to rise by at least 50 bp. n. Increased inflationary pressure against the backdrop of rising government spending and a round of devaluation made this scenario inevitable. The increase in rates is fundamentally positive for the national currency, although monetary support will affect the ruble not at the moment, but over time. In general, the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate will continue to depend on external trade flows, the volume of foreign currency sales by exporters, demand for imports and geopolitics.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

Not in favor of the ruble are the reports of the International Energy Agency on the decline in Russia’s revenues from oil exports in June

Oil, rising against the backdrop of OPEC+ cuts, as well as consumer activity in China, acts as support for the Russian ruble. However, there are reasons to believe that in July, despite the decline in inflation in June, the effect of the weakening of the ruble in prices will still manifest itself, since most goods and services also contain a component of imported components. The predominance of pro-inflationary risks over disinflationary ones will increase. As a result, there remains a high probability of the regulator raising the key rate, and such a signal was already given to them at the last meeting. Not in favor of the ruble are the reports of the International Energy Agency on the decline in Russia’s revenues from oil exports in June. As positive factors for the US dollar, the Fed’s signals to complete the tightening of the monetary policy against the backdrop of a noticeable decrease in inflation in the US act.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

Central Bank statistics on the current account do not correlate with the significant weakening of the ruble in recent weeks

The ruble is consolidating around the level of 90 rubles. per dollar, reflecting the end of the active phase of the weakening. Rising oil prices act as support, Russian Urals exceeded $60 per barrel, lowering the dollar-ruble exchange rate, which is comfortable for the budget. The Central Bank statistics on the current account does not correlate with the significant weakening of the ruble in recent weeks, so there is reason to believe that a significant part of the rate movements was provided by speculative strategies. If this is confirmed, then another attempt to win back the losses of the ruble is likely. The July meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation may support the ruble if the regulator raises the key rate by at least 50 bp. n. while maintaining a hard signal.