Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for July 10–14

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

Overcoming the range of 92–93 rubles. is neither fundamentally nor technically sound

Volatility in the currency market of the Moscow exchange remained elevated throughout the week, and the dollar at the moment was approaching the mark of 94 rubles. The growth was due to both increased demand among major players and strong speculators’ activity. As a result, the jump in the US currency did not last long, and the dollar moved to the decline, supported by statements “defusing” the situation on the part of representatives of the financial sector. We believe that at the moment, overcoming the range of 92-93 rubles. is neither fundamental nor technically sound. We do not exclude the correction of the dollar-ruble pair and the transition to a more fundamentally justified range of 86–88 rubles. against the background of the expected activation of exporters in the market.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The fundamental weakness of the ruble has not gone away

Attempts to restore the ruble from the lows of March last year look uncertain. Monetary and financial authorities interfere minimally with verbal interventions in the course of foreign exchange trading. Nevertheless, the past devaluation wave requires profit fixing. At the start of the week, the ruble is likely to try to continue to recover losses, for example, thanks to the price of a barrel of Urals approaching $60 and reducing its spread to Brent below $20. Nevertheless, the fundamental weakness of the ruble has not gone away, so the level of 90 rubles / $ may look like an equilibrium in the short term.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

Fundamentally, we see the dollar closer to 80

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 88.5–92.5. Following the verbal interventions of the Central Bank, which declared its readiness to “intervene in the event of financial stability risks,” real actions may well follow. The current exchange rates have gone far from their adequate levels, and a currency that is too expensive disrupts macroeconomic stability, creates difficulties for importers, and increases inflationary risks. Fundamentally, we see the dollar closer to 80. And the market itself, it seems, has tuned in to a rollback from extremes: anxiety in sentiment is decreasing, Brent oil has been holding at a price level above $75 since early July, the likelihood of the Central Bank raising the key rate following the July meeting at 50–100 b. P.

Of the important events before the end of the week, we single out the NATO summit

Until the end of next week, we expect trading in the dollar / ruble pair in the range of 89-91.5 rubles / $. The ruble will be supported by recovering oil prices and a likely reduction in geopolitical risks. Of the important events before the end of the week, we single out the NATO summit. With the reduction of geopolitical tensions, Russian assets will receive an impulse to increase, and the ruble will strengthen to the lower limit of the range of 89 rubles / $. The implementation of the negative scenario will lead to another wave of weakening of the Russian currency. In addition, data on the US Producer Price Index for June will be published next week. Market participants expect it to grow by 0.2% against -0.3% in May. The release of these data may put negative pressure on risky assets on world markets. We add that the key event for the Russian market will take place on July 21, when the Russian regulator will make a decision on the key rate.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

Market participants are actively evaluating Fed interest rate growth forecasts

The resumption of growth in energy prices can help the Russian currency strengthen its current positions, since the current situation is largely determined by objective factors – an increase in appetite on the part of importers with decreasing exports. When the export earnings begin to grow, the value of the Russian ruble will follow it upwards. The mood at the end of the working week in the currency and energy market largely depends on the results of the key report on employment in the US. Market participants are actively evaluating forecasts of growth in Fed interest rates for a longer period against the backdrop of economic growth prospects. Not in favor of the euro news about the reduction of industrial production in Germany in May this year.