Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for January 19-20 – Finance – Kommersant

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

Increased activity of exporters may be observed in the coming days

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar by the end of this week is 67-70. Confidence to the ruble can give impetus to rising oil prices and the sale of the yuan within the budget rule. Also, in the coming days, there may be increased activity of exporters converting foreign exchange earnings before the tax period approaches. It is worth noting the weakness of the dollar itself, the DXY index runs at levels last seen in the spring of last year. The negative for the Russian currency is the data on the increase in the discount on Urals, which was recently announced by the RF Ministry of Finance. In the short term, we do not exclude the movement of the dollar / ruble pair in the direction of 67 rubles / $.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The probable short-term range of the dollar exchange rate is 67-69 rubles / $

The combination of the beginning of the tax period in January and the resumption of the fiscal rule with the sale of the yuan provides support to the Russian currency. The ruble has noticeably retreated from the lows of the year and is able to demonstrate further strengthening. This may also be facilitated by the recovery in prices for Russian oil, a barrel of Urals has been trading above $60 per barrel since Friday. Until January 25, when VAT and MET are paid, which will require about 1.2 trillion rubles, we can expect a moderately positive dynamics of the ruble against the backdrop of the presence of exporters in the domestic foreign exchange market. The probable short-term range of the dollar exchange rate is 67–69 rubles/$.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

The euro on the world market shows a decrease

In the foreign exchange market, there is an increased demand for foreign currency. The ruble is currently not behaving very confidently against the backdrop of reduced gas prices and a general trend towards a decrease in foreign exchange earnings. At the same time, the outlined increase in oil prices, the overall relatively positive mood in the markets, the start of preparations for tax payments, as well as foreign currency sales within the budget rule can act as support for it. The active movement of the yuan in Russia continues, and now the focus is on the launch by the regulator of a currency swap to provide yuan, which will limit the volatility of money market rates in the event of temporary imbalances. The euro on the world market shows a decline. Meanwhile, he is encouraged by the data published by Eurostat, which shows a slowdown in annual inflation in 19 eurozone countries in December 2022.

Volatility will remain subdued until the release of new

Until the end of the week, the ruble will continue to receive support from the conversion of foreign exchange earnings by exporters and the growth of oil prices. The level of volatility will remain low until the release of new news that has not yet been taken into account in the market. It should be noted that the International Energy Agency published a report according to which oil production by OPEC + member countries lags behind the established production volume. The agency also raised the forecast for growth in oil demand this year by 160,000 barrels, which is about 101.87 million barrels per day. This forecast will stimulate the growth of oil prices, which will ultimately support the Russian currency.