Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for January 12-13 – Finance – Kommersant

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The volume of currency sales is not so great yet

The key news for the domestic foreign exchange market is the resumption of the fiscal rule in favor of the ruble. Although the volume of planned purchases in January is less than 5% of the average daily turnover in the yuan / ruble pair over the past few weeks, the likelihood of holding a stronger position in the Russian currency has increased. The increase in yuan sales could double from the current level, which will already be significant for exchange rates. This may happen if the current level of Russian oil prices is maintained and retaliatory measures against the price ceiling from the EU are put in place, which will lead to an increase in lost oil and gas revenues. So far, this news may retain its influence on the speculative positions in foreign currency gained at the end of last year, however, the volume of foreign currency sales is not yet large enough to significantly change the balance of power in the domestic market.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The operation of the budget rule allows to smooth out the volatility of the ruble exchange rate dynamics

On Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance and the regulator published the terms of the updated budget rule, sales of the currency (yuan) will begin on January 13. The sharp strengthening of the ruble on this news is mainly psychological in nature. After the entry into force of the updated rule, its impact on the exchange rate dynamics of the ruble is expected to be insignificant. Until February 6, the daily volume of foreign currency sales will amount to 3.2 billion rubles, which is less than 1.5% of the average daily turnover of yuan/dollar/euro trading on the Moscow Exchange in December. The operation of the budget rule makes it possible to smooth out the volatility of the exchange rate dynamics of the ruble. The price optimism in oil, associated with the easing of quarantine restrictions in China, also remains a factor supporting the Russian currency. A moderately negative trend in the ruble debt market can restrain the ruble strengthening, the RGBI government bond index has been losing more than 0.7% since January 6.

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

The key support for the positions of the national currency was provided by the activation of exporters in the market

At the beginning of the first working week, the dollar exchange rate, as expected, went down, testing the mark of 68.5 rubles on Wednesday. The key support for the positions of the national currency was provided by the activation of exporters in the market, who accumulated income over the long weekend. On Wednesday, it became known that the Ministry of Finance plans to launch a budget rule soon. In total, by February 6, 54.5 billion rubles worth of currency will be sold. (3.2 billion rubles per day) – approximately 5-10% of the daily turnover. According to our estimates, this is a positive factor for the ruble in the conditions of cheap oil. The recovery of the Chinese economy after the abolition of covid restrictions (which increases the country’s need for energy), as well as the seasonal sale of the currency by the population in the Russian Federation, will affect the strengthening of the ruble in January. According to our estimates, the dollar exchange rate within a month may reach the level of 65 rubles. and below. At the end of the week, we expect the exchange rate to be in the range of 67–68 rubles/$.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

Buying currency with a high degree of probability ensures that the Russian ruble does not strengthen excessively in the future

At the beginning of the year, the US dollar and the euro are smoothly moving downward on the Moscow Exchange. The Russian Ministry of Finance announced a possible forthcoming purchase/sale of foreign currency within the framework of the budget rule, against which the ruble continued to strengthen. This behavior of the Russian currency is probably not related to the new fiscal rule, since the rule (buying foreign currency for rubles) can only weaken the ruble. At the very least, the purchase of foreign currency with a high degree of probability guarantees that the Russian ruble will not strengthen excessively in the future, as in 2022, when there was no one to buy up excess foreign exchange earnings. Meanwhile, the focus of world markets is the discussion of further tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy at the next meetings in order to cool the current inflation.

Until the end of the year, we still forecast the weakening of the national currency

Until the end of the week, we predict trading in the dollar/ruble pair in the range of 68–70 rubles/$. The ruble received support from the message that the Ministry of Finance will sell the currency (yuan) on the stock exchange from January 13 to February 6 to compensate for lost oil and gas revenues. This event will lead to a decrease in volatility in the foreign exchange market and will support the national currency. Until the end of the year, we still forecast the weakening of the national currency, so we consider the moments of ruble strengthening as an opportunity to increase the foreign exchange position. We add that oil quotes received an impetus to growth against the backdrop of a decrease in the “zero tolerance” policy for Covid-19 in China. This factor will also support the national currency.