Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for January 11–12
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The tension in which the Russian foreign exchange market was in the first days of the new year has noticeably weakened with the end of the holidays. On Tuesday, the exchange rate of the dollar fixed at 89.9 rubles/$, which is 46 kopecks. below the values at the end of 2023. This is facilitated by the supply of currency from exporters, which does not find sufficient demand from importers and individuals.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (RUB/$) |
|---|---|
| “Tsifra Bank” | 88.00-91.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 88.00-90.00 |
| Expobank | 88.00-90.00 |
| “BCS World of Investments” | 88.00-91.00 |
| Bank Zenit | 89.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 89.20 |
* Consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic average of analysts’ forecasts
Have a positive impact on the short-term prospects of the ruble
The ruble is strengthening moderately after the start of full trading on the domestic market. Support comes from deferred currency sales by exporters and seasonally weak imports, generating lower demand for foreign currency. Expectations of an increase in foreign currency sales by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as part of the modification of the budget rule and mirroring of investments from the National Welfare Fund also have a positive impact on the short-term prospects of the ruble.
The Central Bank resumed operations on the sale of foreign currency at the expense of the National Welfare Fund
Our forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate by the end of this week is 88–91. Monetary regulatory measures continue to fuel the ruble with strength. The effect of high rates is accumulating; after the holidays, exporters returned to the market with sales of most of the proceeds, the Central Bank resumed operations on the sale of foreign currency at the expense of the National Welfare Fund. Another positive for the national currency was the decline in demand for imports after the holiday surge. At the same time, it is likely that a 10% decline in oil prices in late autumn – early winter could, with a time lag, translate into a reduction in the volume of incoming foreign exchange earnings and put pressure on the ruble at the beginning of the year. We also note the strength of the dollar itself – the DXY index has noticeably increased from its lows at the end of December and has been trading above 102 points for a week now.
The ruble will continue to be supported by the general tightening of monetary policy by the Russian regulator
In the first days of the working week, the Russian ruble demonstrated a strengthening of its position on the Moscow Exchange. The main support for the ruble came from the Central Bank’s foreign exchange interventions, which outweighed the negative trends in the oil market, where oil prices went down after Saudi Arabia’s decision to reduce oil prices for its customers. The ruble will continue to be supported by the general tightening of monetary policy by the Russian regulator, as well as control of sales of foreign currency earnings. However, the ruble may be subject to increased volatility due to the influence of multidirectional factors on its exchange rate. The exchange rate of the national currency still largely depends on the further degree of the geopolitical situation and energy prices. There is relative calm on the global market in anticipation of an important benchmark in the form of US inflation data, which is scheduled for publication in the coming week.
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