Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for February 8–9

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of the Financial Markets Operations Department

The decision on the key rate will not have a noticeable impact on the ruble exchange rate

High energy prices and the building of new export logistics chains, coupled with an open-ended policy of mandatory repatriation of foreign currency earnings, continue to support the ruble exchange rate. Not in favor of the ruble are the purchases of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance within the framework of the budget rule, which resumed on February 7. The focus of the Russian market is the Central Bank meeting on the key rate on February 16. We expect it to remain unchanged, since the Central Bank needs statistics that support a sustainable reduction in pro-inflationary risks. The decision on the key rate will not have a noticeable impact on the ruble exchange rate, since if there are no surprises in terms of the decision on the rate, this is already included in the expectations of the players. Meanwhile, the harsh rhetoric of the head of the Federal Reserve, who dispelled expectations of a rate cut in the near future, added to the tension in global markets.

Dmitry Rozhkov,
treasury director

Oil and gas revenues received in January were below base

Over the past week, the ruble surpassed the mark of 91 rubles/$. Globally, the ruble is pressured by the decrease in the current account in December 2023 to $0.6 billion from $4.7 billion in November. The decrease in currency flows into the country affects supply in the foreign exchange market and may provoke a weakening of the national currency. In January, regulators managed to successfully compensate for the shortfall in supply through currency sales by the Bank of Russia in the amount of 16.7 billion rubles. Nevertheless, oil and gas revenues received in January were below the base, which prompts the Ministry of Finance to purchase foreign currency and gold according to the fiscal rule. As a result, in February net sales of foreign currency will decrease by almost 2 times, to 8.1 billion rubles. A decrease in foreign currency sales may have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate in the short term, so our expectations for the week are 89.5–93 rubles/$.

Support for the ruble along with seasonal weakening of imports

Despite the fact that volatility in the dollar-ruble pair remains, in the middle of the week the inertia towards the weakening of the ruble weakened. This is facilitated by periodic surges in sales of dollars and yuan, reflecting some activation of exporters, as well as the emerging improvement in the situation on the oil market, restraining speculative pressure on the ruble. On February 7, the Ministry of Finance began purchasing foreign currency according to the budget rule. However, taking into account the unrealized volumes of foreign currency postponed since last year, the Bank of Russia will remain a net seller, although it will offer the yuan market not 15.9 billion rubles, but 8.1 billion rubles. in a day. Nevertheless, this will provide support to the ruble along with a seasonal weakening of imports. In the absence of execution of large transactions to purchase assets from non-residents and the deterioration of the external background, this can return the dollar to our target range of 85–90 rubles. We hope that this will happen this week.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

From February 7 to March 6, net sales of foreign currency by the regulator will be halved

Our forecast for the ruble/dollar exchange rate by the end of this week is 89.5–91.5 rubles/$. The main events in the currency pair are unfolding around the 91 mark. The main factor of pressure on the ruble is a reduction in the influx of export proceeds with a consistently increased demand for foreign currency from importers and investors. In addition, after the publication of an unexpectedly strong January report on the US labor market, the dollar sharply strengthened against the major currencies, the DXY index was thrown into the area of ​​two-month highs. A tough monetary policy, mandatory sales of most of the proceeds by exporters on the domestic market and foreign exchange interventions of the Central Bank help to counter the pressure on the ruble. True, from February 7 to March 6, net sales of foreign currency by the regulator will be halved. This is moderately negative for the Russian currency.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The ruble may continue its smooth downward trend

Most factors are negative for the Russian currency. Oil prices are significantly below the levels of a week ago. The reduction in foreign currency sales by the Central Bank within the framework of the fiscal rule by half compared to January will reduce the supply of yuan on the market. Under these conditions, the ruble may continue its smooth downward trend.