Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for February 27-March 3 – Finance – Kommersant
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For the fifth week in a row, the US dollar has been strengthening its position on the Russian foreign exchange market. During Friday trading, the US currency exchange rate reached 76.36 rubles/$, the highest since April 2022. At the end of the day, it stopped at 76.13 rubles/$. In a week, the rate rose by almost 2 rubles, and in five weeks of continuous growth – by 7.5 rubles.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| PSB | 73.00-76.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 74.50-76.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 74.00-76.00 |
| BCS World of Investments | 74.00-76.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 74.94 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
Assistance to the Russian currency should be provided by the continuation of the tax period
Given the low trading volumes and incoming information regarding new sanctions on Friday, the Russian currency continued to weaken and exceeded the mark of 75 rubles. per dollar. We believe that this weakening is largely due to low trading volumes and at the beginning of next week the exchange rate may return below the level of 75 rubles. per dollar and will be consolidated in the range of 74-76 rubles. per dollar. Assistance to the Russian currency should be provided by the continuation of the tax period.
The fundamental picture regarding the ruble does not change
The approaching peak in tax payments may support the Russian currency for a short time. The payment of basic taxes at the end of February will require about 2.1 trillion rubles, which is relatively small. In addition, the fundamental picture regarding the ruble does not change, therefore, after a slight strengthening, the national currency may again return to the lows of the current year. Russian oil quotes remain steadily below $60 per barrel, while domestic demand for foreign currency from the side of the population remains moderate, and the budget rule is not very supportive of the course. Thus, the ruble may remain in the range of 74–76 rubles by the end of the week. per dollar.
Much depends on the tone of the rhetoric of the world leaders of the leading countries
As a support for the Russian ruble today, an increase in sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters on the eve of the holidays in the country can act. At the moment, the Russian currency still occupies a rather uncertain position. Not in favor of the ruble – a decrease in oil prices, as well as a noticeable increase in the degree of geopolitical tension. The growth of oil prices may contribute to the recovery of Chinese business activity. And the focus of world investors is the publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting, which can affect both the trajectory of the dollar and commodity quotes. Today, more than ever, much depends on the tone of the rhetoric of the world leaders of the leading countries.
Additional support for the dollar will be provided by US macro statistics
This week, the dollar-ruble pair has been recovering its positions after Friday’s decline. The key growth factor was investors’ fears about the growing geopolitical risk. Next week, the current range for the dollar-ruble pair will be the corridor of 73-76 rubles. In the first half of the week, we expect the ruble to recover on the back of more active exporters ahead of tax payments. By the end of the week, we predict the return of the dollar to the upper part of the range. Additional support for the dollar will be provided by the US macro statistics.
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