Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for February 13-17 – Finance – Kommersant
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The ruble ended the past week with a rapid depreciation against the world’s leading currencies. As a result of Friday’s trading, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange amounted to 73.39 rubles / $, which is almost 2.7 rubles. higher than the previous Friday’s close. This was facilitated by the appreciation of the American currency on the world market, as well as a decrease in the volume of foreign exchange earnings coming to the domestic market due to the restrictive measures taken by the EU against Russian oil and oil products.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| BCS World of Investments | 71.00-74.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 72.00-74.00 |
| Expobank | 72.00-75.00 |
| PSB | 73.00-75.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 73.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 73.20 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
For the Russian currency, the decision of the Bank of Russia looks rather neutral
The ruble reacted with a moderate weakening to the results of the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, at which the regulator tightened the signal and allowed an increase in the key rate at subsequent meetings. For the Russian currency, the decision of the Bank of Russia looks rather neutral, since the potential growth of ruble yields may slow down the outflow of foreign currency capital from the Russian Federation. At the same time, expressed fears for a possibly looser budget policy increase inflationary risks, increase pressure on the domestic debt market and ruble exchange rates. During the week, the ruble lost almost 4%, which may lead to corrective dynamics in the coming days.
The dollar exchange rate will be in the range of 73-75 rubles. until the activation of exporters
During the current week, the dollar rose in price against the backdrop of a surge in demand for the currency and low activity of exporters in the market. According to the statistics of the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance sold 852 million yuan of currency on February 7, which amounted to about 15% of the daily turnover, which, in turn, did not support the ruble due to the low level of foreign currency supply on the market. We believe that next week the dollar will be in the range of 73-75 rubles. until the activation of exporters in the market. Possible additional pressure on the position of the ruble due to the growth of the US currency on global markets in the event of disappointing statistics on inflation in the US on Tuesday.
The announced voluntary cut in oil production in March can change the situation on the market
The focus is on the statement of the Ministry of Finance about plans to zero out the share of the euro in the National Wealth Fund in 2023, which can significantly change the balance of power in the foreign exchange market and the demand for the European currency today. The growth in foreign currency sales within the framework of the budget rule does not currently create significant support for the ruble. Meanwhile, maintaining the key rate at Friday’s meeting will not affect the current rates and rates, as was expected by the market. The announced voluntary reduction in oil production in March as part of the restoration of market relations is capable of changing the situation on the market. Against the backdrop of such a statement, the price of oil showed an increase.
Foreign currency sales by exporters may intensify in Russia in the near future
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week is 71-74. On Friday, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation left the key rate unchanged at 7.5%, while the regulator tightened its rhetoric, which is generally positive for the national currency. Nevertheless, the reaction of the ruble to the results of the meeting was short and restrained, the ruble remains prone to weakening against the backdrop of the sanctioned contraction of commodity exports and the geopolitical discount on domestic oil and oil products. In the coming week, US consumer price data for January will be important for global sentiment. In Russia, sales of foreign currency by exporters who wish to stock up on rubles in advance for the tax period may become more active in the near future. Together with the daily sales of the yuan under the fiscal rule, this could support the Russian currency.
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