Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for December 29-30 – Finance – Kommersant

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

Until the end of the year, the Russian currency may remain under pressure

The end of the tax period deprives the ruble of that modest support that was shown at the end of last week. Until the end of the year, the Russian currency may remain under pressure. The catalyst for this process is the verbal interventions of the Ministry of Finance in relation to the weaker ruble: from the definition of a comfortable range of the dollar exchange rate of 70-80 rubles. before intentions in 2023 to start buying yuan in the NWF. Despite the current dynamics of the Russian currency, this does not mean that trading next year will be just as negative for its positions. The current dynamics is “noisy” with chaotic capital flows and speculative activity, traditional for the end of the year.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

It is most likely not worth waiting for any sharp currency fluctuations in the coming days

The euro, as well as the dollar, fueled by the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric, are currently on an upward trajectory on the Moscow Exchange. At the same time, the sale of foreign exchange earnings could not add noticeable optimism. It is not yet possible to assess the impact on the ruble exchange rate and oil prices of the signing of the decree on the introduction of retaliatory measures on the price ceiling for Russian oil from February 1. The situation in the energy market, meanwhile, largely depends on the uncertainty with quarantine measures in China, covered by new outbreaks of coronavirus. Recession risks in the US are also putting pressure on the state of affairs in the oil and gas sector. The approaching New Year holidays traditionally reduce activity on world markets. Therefore, it is most likely not worth waiting for any sharp currency fluctuations in the coming days.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The exchange rate will stabilize soon.

After passing through the peak of support from the tax period, the Russian currency continued its devaluation impulse. We believe that the exchange rate will begin to stabilize in the near future. With December, some specific factors of pressure on the ruble will also go away, for example, increased budget spending, a surge in demand for foreign goods and foreign currency for planned trips or as insurance in case of external negative materialization during long holidays. At the same time, as stated in the Ministry of Finance, decisions on the purchase of yuan by the NWF under the updated budget rule will be made monthly from January 2023. This information is negative for the national currency, but in general, the effect on the exchange rate is expected to be restrained due to the parameters of the updated rule.

We continue to expect further ruble depreciation against major currencies next year

By the end of the week, we are increasing our forecast trading range at the dollar/ruble rate to the level of 70–73 rubles/$. The factor of the weakening of the Russian currency will be expectations for a reduction in oil production at the beginning of next year. We note the growth of the yuan against the ruble. The sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters as part of the payment of taxes during the tax period ended, and therefore, the yuan won back the losses of this period in relation to the ruble. We still expect the ruble to weaken further against major currencies next year. Let us add that the comments of the head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov that the purchase of yuan may begin as early as next year, also speak in favor of the prospects of the yuan in the Russian market among foreign currencies.