Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for December 19-23 – Finance – Kommersant
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The American currency completed the past week with a steady growth on the Russian market. Following the results of Friday’s trading, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange amounted to 64.65 rubles / $, the maximum value at the close since May 27. For a week it grew by more than 2.2 rubles. The bearish game on the Russian foreign exchange market is being played against the background of falling prices on the world oil market, as well as increased sanctions pressure from the EU.
;
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| PSB | 63.50-64.50 |
| Bank Zenith | 63.50-64.50 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 64.00-66.00 |
| Expobank | 63.50-65.50 |
| BCS World of Investments | 63.00-65.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 64.30 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
The December devaluation round faced resistance from the tax period factor
Our forecast for the ruble/dollar exchange rate for next week is 63–65 rubles/$. The devaluation round of December faced resistance from the factor of the tax period, and, apparently, in the short term, we can expect the dollar to consolidate at the line of 64 rubles/$. Tax payments to the budget and off-budget funds in December will be about 20% higher than in the previous month. Oil prices, as well as the global risk appetite, remain volatile, the picture on the ruble debt market is stable. In general, our forecast for the end of the current year, with the value of the dollar in the region of 64-65 rubles / $, remains relevant.
By the end of the year, the ruble may try to compensate for part of the losses
The ruble has accelerated the pace of weakening, but it still does not look so significant. The pressure on the ruble is exerted by a temporary reduction in export flows and, as a result, a decrease in the supply of foreign currency on the domestic market. Nevertheless, before the end of the year, the ruble may try to compensate for some of the losses. Payments for the tax period in December will exceed 3 trillion rubles. and will be 30% more than November payments. This looks commensurate with a possible decrease in foreign exchange inflows, so it is more likely that the dollar will not exceed 65–66 rubles/$ in the next week, but rather will consolidate around the 64 rub/$ mark.
The ruble will move to restore its positions against foreign currencies
The USD/RUB pair has shown growth this week, following a decrease in Russia’s oil and gas export earnings due to the embargo, as well as against the backdrop of pessimism in global stock and commodity markets after the last Fed meeting, at which the US regulator demonstrated hawkish rhetoric. At the same time, local trading activity in dollars with “tomorrow” settlements rose sharply to September highs. We believe that the seasonal inflow of liquidity into the banking system could put additional pressure on the ruble positions. We believe that next week the ruble will begin to restore its positions against foreign currencies. The key support factor will be the activation of exporters in the market in anticipation of tax payments. We consider the strengthening of the dollar in 2022 above 65.5 rubles/$ unlikely and continue to focus on the end of the year in the range of 63.5–64.5 rubles/$. The focus of the statistics will be the consumer confidence index, which may weaken the dollar’s position in the global market. Among the risk factors for the ruble, we will single out the possible persistence of pessimism in the commodity markets, as well as the seasonal inflow of liquidity into the banking system.
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